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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
12.02.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 12.02.2025
Target price: EUR 5.50
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
H1 prelims broadly in line / Mixed start into Kovac era; chg.
Topic: BVB released H1/Q2 results, which came in softer than in the year
before due to lower transfer income, yet being in line with our estimates.
Moreover, Niko Kovac meanwhile finished his second game as head coach - so
far with a mixed record. In detail:
Q2 sales decreased 11.1% yoy to EUR 137.2m (eNuW: EUR 140.5m). This was mainly
driven by a decline in match operations sales of EUR 17.3m (-13.3% yoy; eNuW:
EUR 17.9m) caused by a fewer amount of home games (8 vs 10 in prior year) as
well as reduced TV marketing sales of EUR 59.0m (-17.4% yoy; eNuW: 60.7m). The
latter was mainly driven by the longer league phase of the UCL meaning that
income from international TV marketing is recognized at a later date during
the year compared to the previous year.
On this basis and following reduced transfer income, Q2 EBITDA decreased to
EUR 33.0m (eNuW: EUR 34.9m). Yet, given an H1 EBITDA of EUR 58.7m, BVB remains
fully on track to achieve its FY24/25 guidance of EUR 110-120m EBITDA. While
the departure of Donyell Malen to Aston Villa should affect H2 EBITDA
positively, the head coach change should have the opposite effect. Mind you,
that we still have not accounted for the CWC this summer, as FIFA is yet to
disclose prize money details. Hence, there is still upside to our estimates.
Unlucky Bundesliga debut for Kovac. Last weekend, Niko Kovac coached his
first match in the Bundesliga, which BVB lost 1-2 at home against Stuttgart,
one of the team competitors in the race for a top-4 finish. Despite the
defeat we regard the performance as solid, and the win for Stuttgart as
rather lucky. That being said, BVB currently is in 11th place, 7 points
behind 4th. In this regard, it appears challenging but still well possible
to achieve the UCL qualification for the coming season, which is why we
remain our estimates for the FY25/26e.
UCL. On the contrary to the Bundesliga, BVB yesterday won the first leg of
the play-off round 3-0 at Sporting Lisbon, which hands the team a strong
advantage for the second leg next Wednesday. Mind you, BVB will play either
Lille or Aston Villa, should they advance to the round of 16. Both teams
should be beatable for the team, which is thus leaving a certain upside to
our estimates (round of 16 exit).
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 5.50 based on DCF.
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bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2084853 12.02.2025 CET/CEST
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