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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
17.03.2025 / 09:01 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 17.03.2025
Target price: EUR 5.20
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
No Kovac effect so far but UCL quarterfinal spot secured; chg.
Thanks to a 2-1 away victory in the second leg of the UCL round of 16
against Lille, BVB secured a spot in the 2024/25 UCL quarterfinals. Here,
the team will face Hansi Flick's FC Barcelona, a matchup which should see
BVB as the clear underdog. Yet, BVB has shown in the past, especially during
last season's knock-out stage, that the team is able to compete with and
even eliminate seemingly stronger opponents as well.
By reaching the quarterfinals, BVB also secured another EUR 12.5m in UEFA
prize money as well as an additional home game. Especially the prize money
should not just push FY24/25 top- but also significantly the bottom-line, as
despite bonus payments to players, de facto no incremental costs are
incurred. Should the team be able to eliminate Barcelona and reach the
semifinals, the company would generate another EUR 15m prize money as well as
a further home game. Here, the team would face either Bayern Munich or Inter
Milan.
Rough Bundesliga performance. Following two consecutive Bundesliga victories
(1st time this season), BVB lost its home game against Augsburg the week
before and now lost their away game at Leipzig, leaving the team in 11th
place, 10 points behind the top 4. Mind you, a top 4 finish is needed to
qualify for the upcoming UCL season, while positions 5-6 allow for UEFA
Europa League (UEL) qualification and position 7 results in participation in
the UEFA Europa Conference League (UECL). Currently BVB is 4 points behind
6th and 3 points behind 7th. The only other option to qualify for the UCL is
to win the current competition.
Should BVB not qualify for an international competition or qualify for
either UEL or UECL, this would imply significantly lower UEFA prize money
payments. While the overall prize money in the UCL is EUR 2.44bn, it is only EUR
565m in the UEL and EUR 285m in the UECL. According to our calculations, BVB
would generate EUR 78m in a UCL season (round of 16), while the amount would
be only EUR 23m in the UEL (quarterfinals) and only EUR 14m in the UECL
(semifinals).
As it is becoming increasingly unlikely for the club to reach the top 4, we
have adjusted our estimates by taking into account the probabilities of
reaching the UCL, UEL, UECL, or no international competition at all, using
the corresponding expected value. On the other hand, FIFA finally put out a
prize money figure for the FIFA CWC this summer, while still not providing
distribution details. Overall prize money will amount to $ 1bn, implying an
average sum of $ 31.3m per participant. Thus, we conservatively estimate BVB
to receive this average value. As the tournament crosses FY24/25 and
FY25/26, we attributed half the amount towards this year's P&L estimate and
the other half into the next year. Mind you, this is still leaving upside,
as BVB is seen as the clear favorite in their group (details here) and could
potentially be set for a deep knock-out stage run.
While the short-term outlook might be rather muted, the club remains one of
the top-teams in Europe based on the strategic fundamentals built over the
last 15 years. Even if the team would miss out on 2025/26 UCL qualification,
we are certain that it will jump back the next season based on a highly
talented squad. Also, the new coach might need the summer break to adjust
the squad according to his wishes.
We reiterate our BUY recommendation with a new PT of EUR 5.20 (old: EUR 5.50)
based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31994.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
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Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2101252 17.03.2025 CET/CEST
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