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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA - from NuWays AG
19.05.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund GmbH & Co KGaA
ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 19.05.2025
Target price: EUR 5.20
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Superb run secures UCL qualification; chg.
Thanks to a 3-0 home victory on Saturday, BVB has secured qualification for
the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League (UCL) on the last matchday of the season.
From the perspective of before this matchday, that was certainly not a
surprise. In March, however, BVB were still 10 points behind 4th place after
a 2-0 defeat in Leipzig, leading us to put only a 10% likelihood on the
club's UCL hopes. However, following a superb winning streak with 7
victories out of the last 8 Bundesliga matches, where the only draw was a
2-2 at Bayern, BVB jumped from 11th to 4th place.
Why is this so important? The UCL is the most competitive club competition
in the world and therefore UEFA's flagship event, leading to correspondingly
high prize money. In fact, while the overall prize money in the UCL is EUR
2.44bn, it is only EUR 565 in the UEFA Europa League (UEL) and only EUR 285m in
the UEFA Conference League (UECL). According to our calculations and
forecasts, BVB will be able to achieve EUR 78m in UCL related TV marketing
sales next season. In contrast, this figures would have been at EUR 23m in the
UEL and at EUR 14m in the UECL and of course at EUR 0 when failing entirely to
qualify for a European competition.
UCL qualification was thus crucial for the club and does now open up
significant opportunities on the transfer market in our view. Combined with
potential departures of talented players like Jamie Gittens (EUR 50m market
value) or Nico Schlotterbeck (EUR 40m), the club will receive an estimated $
51m from participating in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, which takes place in
the US during the summer.
In our view, management should be able to built a strong team around the
already strong foundation of the squad with these funds, making us confident
that in contrast to this season BVB will easily qualify for UCL in the
coming season. A first step here was the permanent signing of defender
Daniel Svensson, who has been on loan at the club since January. In 11
Bundesliga matches, he was able to produce solid stats including 2 assists
and 1 goal.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged EUR 5.20 PT based on DCF.
+++ Register here for our digital roundtable tomorrow, where CFO Thomas Treß
will provide investors with a business update following the Bundesliga
season +++
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++++++++++
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2140004 19.05.2025 CET/CEST
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