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Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG
28.11.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG
Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN: AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 28.11.2025
Target price: EUR 58.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
On Tuesday, FWAG decided against building the 3rd runway, as a result of a
comprehensive cost-benefit analysis. In detail:
Decision to abandon plans for a third runway does not alter its medium- to
long-term growth prospects. The key rationale for an additional runway was
to circumvent a possible capacity constraint. Yet the sharp rise in aircraft
efficiency over the past two decades has materially expanded effective
capacity. Avg. passengers per aircraft have nearly doubled (71 in 2005 to
139 in 2024), allowing VIE to accommodate significantly higher passenger
volumes without a corresponding increase in aircraft visits. On this basis,
the airport's two-runway system can handle up to roughly 52 million
passengers per year, providing ample headroom relative to expected traffic
levels (NuWays: 32m in FY25e and 34m in FY30e). Even if passenger growth
were to continue at a steady 2-3% CAGR, VIE would only approach its system
limit around 2050e. In reality, the constraint is likely to shift further
out as airlines regularly up-gauge their fleets, e.g. moving from A320
variants (c. 180 seats) to larger A321 configurations (up to 244 seats).
Avoiding high costs, low CAPEX recovery potential and long approval times.
As additional capacity would not attract incremental airlines or passengers,
a third runway would fail to achieve commercially healthy utilization.
Therefore, the 3rd runway would not generate sufficient cash flows to
recover the projected costs of EUR 2bn in CAPEX (runway, terminal buildings
and surrounding infrastructure). Beyond sharply higher construction costs,
the risk of excessively long approval processes have also posed a risk.
Temporarily higher dividends likely. With EUR 438m in net cash per 9M'25
(eNuW: 443m per Y/E'25e), FWAG has hoarded cash in order to have financial
power if a positive decision would have been made. Now, the substantially
high cash position has become obsolete, in our view. Therefore, we expect a
temporarily higher dividend of EUR 3 per share for FY'25-27e (i.e. EUR 251m pay
out annually, currently 5.4% yield). This would reduce the net-cash position
to EUR 141m by FY'27e, while remaining at healthy levels. After FY'27e, the
south expansion of terminal 3 will also be completed and thus FCFs will
likely grow to EUR 250-300m p.a. (eNuW), suggesting that the conservative
dividend policy (payout ratio of currently "more than 60%") could be
loosended to higher dividends for longer, in our view.
As we have not reflected a 3rd runway on our estimates, they remain
unchanged, except for our dividend assumption and a EUR 56m write-off (eNuW)
in Q4'25e on capitalized expenses in relation to the project. However, this
has no effect on our DCF-based PT of EUR 58.00. Therefore, we reiterate our
HOLD recommendation as upside remains limited, in our view. However,
dividend oriented investors should consider taking advantage of this
(temporarily) higher yield.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=a457fdda5a92e9a09f3bb919c7f459c0
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2237184 28.11.2025 CET/CEST
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