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Original-Research: NFON AG - from NuWays AG
22.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to NFON AG
Company Name: NFON AG
ISIN: DE000A0N4N52
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 22.08.2025
Target price: EUR 12.10
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
Macro headwinds trigger expected guidance cut; chg.
Yesterday, NFON released its H1 report, with sales growth lagging
expectations but profitability exceeding our estimates.. Still, amid macro
headwinds, management cut the guidance on both, sales growth and adj.
EBITDA. In detail:
Q2 sales advanced 3.9% yoy to EUR 22.1m (eNuW: EUR 22.4m; eCons: EUR 22.3m), which
was entirely driven by subsidiary botario. In fact, botario's sales surged
to EUR 1.1m (EUR 1.9m in H1 with a 42% operating margin), which was due to
project related sales (48% across Q1 & Q2). Overall, this should translate
into ARR of c. EUR 2.4m (eNuW). On the other hand, NFON's legacy business,
cloud PBX, contracted slightly with sales of EUR 21.0m (-1.4% yoy). This
reflects the continued investment reluctance, reduced hardware sales and
lower voice-minute usage, which however was at least in part due to seasonal
effects in connection with bank holidays. Positively, the recurring sales
ratio remained strong with 92.9%, despite a 2pp decline related to the
strong project business of botario.
Despite the slightly slower growth, adj. EBITDA came in ahead of
expectations (eNuW: EUR 2.9m) at EUR 3.1m, implying a 14.0% margin. Main drivers
for this was the improved gross margin (+1.2 pp to 86.1%) that made up for
slightly increased adj. personnel cost (+0.7pp yoy) and other OpEx ratios
(+0.2pp yoy). Reported EBITDA came in at EUR 2.4m (+4.3% yoy), resulting in a
10.8% margin.
Guidance revised. Based on the muted growth momentum, management decided to
revise the FY25 guidance downwards, now targeting sales growth of 3-5% (old:
8-10%; eNuW new: 3.9%) and adj. EBITDA of EUR 12.5-14.0m (old: EUR 13.5-15.5m;
eNuW new: EUR 13.4m). At mid-point, this implies 4.1% growth in H2 and a 16.2%
adj. EBITDA margin, which we regard as reasonable given the historically
stronger H2. Meanwhile, the mid-term outlook (FY27) remained unchanged, as
management continues to target a FY24-'27 sales CAGR of >10% (eNuW: 10.6%)
and an adj. EBITDA margin of >15% (eNuW: 18.4%).
Despite the guidance cut, the investment case remains intact. Growth should
reaccelerate from FY26e onwards, with management already observing signs of
easing sales cycles and a gradual recovery in customer investment activity.
Looking ahead, growth is seen to be strongly supported by the rollout of new
AI-driven features - an area where NFON is clearly ahead of peers such as
Gamma, Placetel, or Starface. Innovations already introduced, including
voicemail transcription, the AI assistant "NIA," CarPlay integration, and
enhanced security functions, not only broaden the product portfolio but also
open meaningful upselling opportunities, supporting ARPU expansion.
Additional features like automated call summaries and action-item
generation, launched in Q3, further underline NFON's technological edge and
its ability to drive scalable, margin-accretive growth.
Consequently, NFON remains a high conviction call as we keep the stock in
our NuWays Alpha List, which is not least due to the attractive valuation of
8.5x EV/adj. EBITDA FY25e (6.2x FY26e).
BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 12.10 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=5952c7512fbba6b48f2c569f6a6df823
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2187412 22.08.2025 CET/CEST
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