Original-Research: Achiko AG - von Sphene Capital GmbH

Einstufung von Sphene Capital GmbH zu Achiko AG

Unternehmen: Achiko AG

ISIN: CH0522213468

Anlass der Studie: Update Report

Empfehlung: Sell

seit: 30.09.2020

Kursziel: CHF 0,03 (bisher USD 1,10)

Kursziel auf Sicht von: 24 Monate

Letzte Ratingänderung: 30.09.2020, vormals Buy

Analyst: Peter Hasler

Where has the business model gone? Downgrade to Sell

The half-year report shows that not much has remained of the original core

business with which Achiko went public in 2019. Revenues in the first half

of 2020 amounted to USD 2.7 million, compared to USD 3.6 million in the

same period last year (-24.6% YoY). While no explanation was given for the

drop in sales, Achiko is, according to our estimates, also far from

reaching the guidance published only in April 2020, which had envisaged

sales of USD 50 million for 2020e and has not been revoked since then. In

our view, this not only raises the question if Achiko's management board

has fulfilled its disclosure obligations that must be complied with since

listing commenced at the SIX Swiss Exchange, but also whether the payment

subdivision, which was a crucial part of the equity story at the time of

the IPO, ever had a competitive set-up. Notwithstanding the unsatisfactory

earnings performance of the former core business, management has in our

view been speculating about expanding the single-product payments business

into a 'global, multifaceted payments, entertainment, health and community

platform' even in its most recent company presentations. However, apart

from the extensive use of media buzzwords such as 'platform strategy' or

'ecosystem for growth', which according to the management are supposed to

address a market of 2.6 billion people within the next three years, not

much of these expansions plans seem to be left.

In view of what has been achieved so far, we do not give the current

management any further credibility that it will succeed in entering a new

market with its 'telehealth platform'. Rather, we consider the aspired

entry into the SARS CoV-2 testing ('Gumnuts') and an ecosystem called Teman

Sehat, translated 'Health Buddy', for which management has not even tried

to explain how revenues or profits would be generated, as a further attempt

to occupy buzzwords hyped up on the stock exchange and thus artificially

generating demand in the share.

Accordingly, we are drastically reducing our earnings estimates, which have

so far been described by the management as 'dramatically conservative'.

Instead of USD 22.5 million, we now expect 2020e revenues of USD 5.9

million (-74.0% vs. our previous estimates). With this, Achiko is far from

becoming profitable in the current and the following fiscal year, in our

view. After reworking our financial model, we are deriving a price target

of CHF 0.03 (previously USD 1.10) from our three-phase discounted cash flow

model. Compared to the last closing price of CHF 0.47, this represents an

expected price risk of -93.5%. We therefore cut our rating to Sell from


Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:


Kontakt für Rückfragen

Peter Thilo Hasler, CEFA

+49(89)74443558/ +49(152)31764553


-übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-

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