Original-Research: Aves One AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Aves One AG

Unternehmen: Aves One AG

ISIN: DE000A168114

Anlass der Studie:

Empfehlung: Buy

Kursziel: 13.50 EUR

Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2021

Letzte Ratingänderung: -

Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker

Good performance in HY 2020 especially in the rail segment with results

slightly above last year's level, target price adjusted to EUR 13.50

(previously: EUR 13.60); Rating: Buy.

In the first half of 2020, revenues were up 14.4% to EUR63.57m (previous

year: EUR55.56m). This significant increase in revenue was achieved despite

the corona crisis, with EUR 3.39 million coming from the sale of the last

property activity in the first quarter. The rail segment continues to

account for the largest share of revenue at EUR41.16m (previous year:

EUR35.76m) and, thanks to the additional assets, was also able to increase

revenue by 15.1%. Revenues from the container segment increased slightly by

0.9% to EUR18.26m (previous year: EUR18.09m) and reflect the strategy of

focusing on the rail segment.

The significant increase in sales is primarily the result of investment

activities in the previous year as well as in the current financial year

and the associated increase in sales. Property, plant and equipment as at

30 June 2020 rose by 16.0% to EUR973.86m (previous year: EUR839.34m). While

adjustments were made in the container segment, where property, plant and

equipment fell by 6.8% to EUR260.42m (previous year: EUR279.51m), property,

plant and equipment in the rail portfolio increased by 27.5% to EUR713.44m

(previous year: EUR559.40m). Investments of EUR65.3m were made and 669 almost

fully leased freight wagons were acquired. Due to the streamlining of the

container portfolio, gross returns (revenue / property, plant and

equipment) rose to 7% (previous year: 6.5%), while gross returns in the

rail sector fell to 5.8% (previous year: 6.4%).

Slightly lower gross returns in the rail segment is due to lower capacity

utilisation. However, capacity utilisation is still at a very high level,

although it has nevertheless declined slightly. This is due, on the one

hand, to the corona crisis, which has caused individual customer sectors to

be more cautious with regard to rents and, on the other hand, to the

ongoing crisis in the steel sector, which had begun even before the corona

crisis. According to the management, Aves One has leased almost all wagons

that can only be used in the steel industry on a long-term basis and

therefore does not expect any further negative consequences from this. If,

in addition, the state players decide to implement an infrastructure

programme to reduce the negative consequences of the corona crisis, Aves

One should benefit disproportionately from this, as many customer segments

would be positively affected.

All in all, good sales growth was thus achieved, as achieved through asset

expansion in the rail division.

Despite the increase in revenue, EBITDA remained virtually unchanged from

the previous year, rising only slightly by 0.8% to EUR42.16 million (previous

year: EUR41.85 million). This reduced the EBITDA margin to 66.3% (previous

year: 75.3%). The reason for this was the lower contribution to earnings

from the container segment.

In the rail segment EBITDA rose by 15.2% to EUR32.36 million (previous year:

EUR28.09 million), thus parallel to sales and corresponding to a stable

EBITDA margin of 78.6% (previous year: 78.6%). The container segment

recorded a 19.1% decline in EBITDA to EUR12.75 million (previous year: EUR15.76

million) with an EBITDA margin in the segment falling to 69.9% (previous

year: 87.1%). This decline in earnings is due to losses of EUR1.83 million

(previous year: EUR0.57 million) from the disposal of assets and EUR1.07

million in other income. Thanks to our lean management approach, staff

costs remained virtually unchanged year on year at EUR2.42m (previous year:

EUR2.34m) despite the expansion of assets and the increase in sales.

Interest expenses rose by 11.4% to EUR21.32m (previous year: EUR19.14m) as a

result of taking out further loans, particularly to finance the increase in

assets under management.

As a result, EBT fell by 71.3% to EUR2.28m (previous year: EUR7.94m), divided

before holding activities and consolidation into EUR9.41m (previous year:

EUR10.00m) for the rail segment and EUR -4.22m (previous year: EUR -0.26m) for

the container segment. Adjusted for non-cash exchange rate effects, EBT

amounted to EUR1.78 million (previous year: EUR6.77 million).

The net result amounted to EUR1.38 million (previous year: EUR5.05 million).

Thus, net profitability was maintained. Nevertheless, against the

background of the corona crisis, 2020 must be seen as a transitional year.

The guidance was confirmed in the context of the half-year figures. The

guidance is currently slightly above the previous year's level with

revenues of over EUR117.00 million and EBITDA of over EUR84.00 million. Against

the background of the ongoing corona crisis, management has issued

comparatively cautious guidance in this regard. We also confirm our

forecast (research report dated 18 May 2020) and are forecasting revenue of

EUR119.15m for the current financial year. We anticipate a slight increase in

capacity utilisation and additional revenue from the acquisition of further

assets. For subsequent years we forecast revenues of EUR127.87m in the 2021

financial year and EUR142.80m in 2022.

The background to the lowering of the forecast is higher depreciation in

the Container Segment and slightly higher financing costs. In addition, it

is difficult to forecast further developments in the year of the corona

crisis. We assume that the corona crisis year could also be used to bring

forward further potential for writedowns, which could then lead to

improvements in subsequent years. The development in container prices,

demand for containers and prices for used containers are also decisive

factors in this respect.

Aves One AG has medium to long-term rental contracts which ensure a good

sales basis and the rental rates should also remain at a very good level.

The company has a very young wagon portfolio, which is in demand during the

crisis period. Nevertheless, there are also individual sectors affected by

Corona in which there is still restraint. In the medium term, we assume

that the rail portfolio is well equipped to benefit from the growth market.

Thus, in the wake of the possible economic crisis, investments in

infrastructure projects will most likely be made to boost the economy. In

addition, the company will benefit from the liberalization of rail freight

transport and the EU's emission targets. We assume that there will be

further comparatively small transactions in the rail sector of up to EUR50

million. All in all, we are assuming good medium-term growth and regard

2020 as a year of transition.

In terms of earnings, we expect a slight improvement in the current 2020

financial year.

EBITDA will increase to EUR86.44 million (previous year: EUR84.60 million), as

the asset portfolio has increased during the course of the 2019 financial

year, thus creating a higher sales and earnings base. On the other hand,

capacity utilisation will be slightly lower, which will reduce revenue and

earnings. We assume that revenue growth will continue to have a

disproportionately high impact on EBITDA and expect an EBITDA margin

increase from 72.4% (2019) to 72.5% (2020), or 73.1% (2021) and 73.7%

(2022), respectively. Accordingly, we forecast EBITDA of EUR86.44 million for

the current financial year 2020, followed by EUR93.49 million in 2021 and

EUR105.29 million in 2022.

On a net level, interest expense should be the decisive influencing factor.

We assume that interest expenses will continue to rise as assets under

management increase, as future portfolio acquisitions will most likely be

financed with debt. We expect improvements in the financing mix, especially

from the 2021 financial year onwards, and assume that net earnings will

continue to rise in the medium term. For the current fiscal year 2020, we

expect a decline to EUR 4.16 million and then solid growth to EUR 10.45 in 2021

and EUR 11.87 in 2022.

We are confident that Aves One's business model is well equipped to weather

the corona, trade & economic crisis. Nevertheless, future developments are

difficult to predict, as the duration and extent of the crisis are

difficult to estimate.

Due to the slight forecast adjustment for the current 2020 financial year,

we are adjusting our price target to EUR 13.50 (previously: EUR 13.60) and

continue to assign the Buy rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

http://www.more-ir.de/d/21705.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen

örg Grunwald

Vorstand

GBC AG

Halderstraße 27

86150 Augsburg

0821 / 241133 0

research@gbc-ag.de

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (4,5a,6a,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:

http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung

Date (time) of completion: 05.10.2020 10:30

Date (time) first transmission: 05.10.2020 12:00

Validity of the course target: until max. 31.12.2021

-übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.

Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung

oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.