Original-Research: Aves One AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Aves One AG

Unternehmen: Aves One AG

ISIN: DE000A168114

Anlass der Studie: Researchstudie (Anno)

Empfehlung: Buy

Kursziel: 14.50 EUR

Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2021

Letzte Ratingänderung:

Analyst: Cosmin Filker; Marcel Goldmann

Concentration on high-margin areas after sale of the maritime container

segment; business development to be even more stable; target price raised


On 18 March 2021, Aves One AG announced the sale of its sea container

business, which means that the company's focus in future will be on the two

business segments 'rail' and 'swap bodies'. With the discontinuation of the

sea container business, Aves One AG is now in a position to implement an

even stronger focus on the high-growth and significantly more profitable

rail and swap body segments. At the same time, the reliability of its

business development will increase due to, among other things, the

elimination of exchange rate effects, and the overall group profitability

will increase significantly.

In the past financial year 2020, which still included the maritime

container segment, the company managed to achieve revenue growth of 6.1% to

EUR123.85 million (previous year: EUR116.78 million) despite pandemic-

related burdens. This was driven exclusively by a 10.2% increase in revenue

in the Rail segment to EUR83.90 million (previous year: EUR76.13 million),

which compensated for the -6.1% decline in revenue in the Container segment

to EUR37.05 million (previous year: EUR39.46 million). The expansion of the

wagon fleet and a slight increase in rental rates in the Rail segment

contributed to successful development.

While the EBITDA of EUR81.80 million (previous year: EUR84.60 million) was

moderately below the previous year's value, in particular due to higher

maintenance expenses and in connection with losses from the sale of sea

containers, the EBIT fell significantly to EUR9.64 million (previous year:

EUR51.70 million). This is due to the significantly higher depreciation and

amortisation of EUR72.14 million (previous year: EUR32.90 million), in

which the extraordinary impairment requirement of the sea container

business sold in 2021 was booked in advance. The sale of the maritime

container portfolio at a purchase price of USD 182.5 million (EUR 147.10

million) was below the previous balance sheet valuation, so that an

impairment of EUR 33.04 million was already taken into account as at 31

December 2020.

For Aves One AG, the current financial year 2021 will also be characterised

by the effects of the sale of the maritime container portfolio, which is

expected to be completed in the coming months. Taking into account the

discontinuation of the sea container sales, the Aves One Board of Directors

forecasts sales revenues of more than EUR 100 million and an EBITDA of more

than EUR 70 million for the current financial year. We base our forecasts

on the company's guidance and expect revenues of EUR 104.88 million and

EBITDA of EUR 73.40 million for 2021. For the coming financial years, we

expect further revenue increases of 12.7% (2022e) and 7.9% (2023e), which

are based on a further increase in the asset portfolio. For the coming

financial years, we conservatively expect only a moderate increase in the

EBITDA margin, which should primarily be supported by a slightly

disproportionately low development of overhead costs. Higher economies of

scale are possible here.

We have determined a new target price of EUR 14.50 (previously: EUR 13.50)

within the framework of the DCF valuation model. The price target increase

is a result of the estimates for the 2023 financial year included in the

concrete estimation period for the first time, which provides a higher

basis for the continuity phase of our model. We continue to assign the BUY


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Date and time of completion of the research report: 04.06.2021 (01:42 pm)

Date and time of first publication: 07.06.2021 (1:00 pm)

-übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-

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