Original-Research: The NAGA Group AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu The NAGA Group AG

Unternehmen: The NAGA Group AG

ISIN: DE000A161NR7

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment

Empfehlung: BUY

Kursziel: 7.03 EUR

Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2021

Letzte Ratingänderung:

Analyst: Cosmin Filker

High growth momentum achieved in 2020; guidance for 2021 clearly above our

expectations; price target raised to EUR7.03 (previously: EUR4.30); BUY

rating

As expected, the preliminary figures of The NAGA Group AG (NAGA for short)

for the past financial year 2020 were characterised by very high growth

dynamic. Revenues of EUR25.9 million (PY: EUR6.22 million) were

significantly above the previous year's figure and slightly above our

revenue estimate last published in December 2020 (GBC forecast: EUR24.9

million).

In addition to the generally favourable market environment characterised by

high volatility and thus high transaction activity, the implemented

focusing and restructuring of NAGA has borne fruit. In 2019, the focus on

the core business of online brokerage was implemented and the corresponding

marketing activities for the main product Naga Trader were strengthened.

The trading volume improved significantly to EUR120 billion (previous year:

EUR44 billion) and the number of transactions to 6.3 million (previous

year: 2.9 million). Despite the increased marketing activities, NAGA was

able to achieve a respectable EBITDA margin of over 23% with an EBITDA of

around EUR6.0 million (previous year: EUR-12.18 million). The preliminary

EBITDA is just below our previous forecasts (GBC forecast: EUR 6.49

million).

By contrast, the new NAGA guidance for the current financial year 2021 is

significantly above our expectations. The continued global marketing of

Naga Trader and even more intensive sales and marketing activities are

expected to generate revenues in a range of EUR 50 - 52 million in the

current financial year. It is also planned to push ahead with global

expansion with the planned market entry in Australia and South America. In

addition, the further improvement of the platform quality and customer

support should keep the customer churn rate low. Despite these measures,

scaling effects should lead to a further improvement in profitability.

According to the new guidance, EBITDA is expected to be in a range of EUR

13 - 15 million.

Our forecasts published in the last research study (see study dated

07.12.2020) are noticeably below the updated company guidance. We are

raising our revenue forecast to EUR 51.00 million (previously: EUR 37.34

million) and our EBITDA estimate to EUR 14.37 million (previously: EUR

11.43 million) in each case. As a result of the higher basis, we now assume

revenues of EUR 61.20 million (previously: EUR 43.87 million) and EBITDA of

EUR 17.84 million (previously: EUR 14.16 million) for 2022.

As a result of the adjusted DCF valuation model, the target price has been

increased significantly to EUR 7.03 (previously: EUR 4.30). Despite the

significant increase in the NAGA share price, which has increased more than

six-fold in the calendar year 2020, there is still a high share price

potential. Based on the current price level of EUR 4.12 per share, we

therefore continue to assign a BUY rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

http://www.more-ir.de/d/21998.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen

Jörg Grunwald

Vorstand

GBC AG

Halderstrasse 27

86150 Augsburg

0821 / 241133 0

research@gbc-ag.de

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR. Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:

http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung

Date (time) completion: 13/01/21 (4:25 pm)

Date (time) first transmission: 14/01/21 (10:00 am)

-übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-

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