Original-Research: wallstreet:online AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu wallstreet:online AG

Unternehmen: wallstreet:online AG

ISIN: DE000A2GS609

Anlass der Studie: Research Note

Empfehlung: BUY

Kursziel: 38.60 EUR

Letzte Ratingänderung:

Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker

FY 2021 closed with jump in revenues and significant expansion of fintech

business; planned optimisation of brokerage business model with the help of

own smartbroker cloud platform should significantly increase growth rate

and earnings power; forecast and price target raised; rating Buy

Business development in the past financial year 2021

On 07/03/2022, wallstreet:online AG (wallstreet:online) announced its

preliminary business figures for the 2021 financial year. According to

these, the group continued its dynamic growth course in the past financial

year and recorded another record year. Compared to the previous year,

revenues jumped by 82.0% to EUR 51.4 million (previous year: EUR 28.2

million).

At the earnings level, EBITDA adjusted for customer acquisition costs of

EUR 13.1 million for Smartbroker increased by 45.0% to EUR 17.5 million

(previous year: EUR 12.0 million). Due to considerable investments in the

development and expansion of the brokerage business (Smartbroker brand),

which, in addition to development costs incurred, primarily affected the

marketing and personnel areas, the EBITDA after customer acquisition costs

fell significantly to EUR 3.9 million (previous year: EUR 7.5 million)

compared to the previous year.

The company thus met both its turnover and earnings guidance. Our turnover

forecast (EUR 49.10 million) was slightly exceeded and our earnings

estimate (EBITDA: EUR 5.70 million) was not reached due to higher costs for

the expansion and development of the brokerage business.

The dynamic increase in group turnover resulted primarily from the

significantly higher business volume in the transaction business area. In

this business field, segment revenues were massively increased to EUR 15.93

million compared to the previous year (previous year: segment revenue GBCe:

EUR 1.20 million). This jump in turnover reflects the successful

investments in the expansion of the smart broker client base.

The company was able to more than double the number of securities accounts

opened and the assets under management in the brokerage business segment in

the past financial year. According to the company, a total of around

246,000 securities accounts were managed as at 31 December 2021, of which

around 200,000 were attributable to the smart broker. The neobroker of the

wallstreet:online group thus grew by 120,000 securities accounts compared

to the previous year, which corresponds to an increase of 140.0%.

Parallel to this, the assets under custody grew significantly by 105% to

EUR 8.8 billion (previous year: EUR 4.3 billion). This results in an

average custody account volume of approximately EUR 36,000, whereby this

figure is significantly higher than the values of well-known competitors.

Accordingly, the company has a particularly valuable client base compared

to its competitors. In terms of client assets under management, the

wallstreet:online group has, thus, according to its own statements, risen

to become the largest neobroker operator in Germany within a very short

time.

In addition, segment revenues in their traditional business (media/portal

business) also increased significantly by 32.0% to EUR 35.47 million

(previous year: EUR 26.87 million) compared to the previous year. In our

opinion, increased user numbers and advertising revenues contributed to

this positive development. Page impressions in the portal business as of 31

December 2021 rose significantly by 16.0% to 3.90 billion (31 December

2020: 3.40 billion) compared to the previous year's reporting date.

Outlook of the wallstreet:online group for the financial year 2022

In view of the dynamic course of business and the record financial year

achieved, the company's management expects the growth course to continue in

the current financial year 2022. For the current financial year 2022, the

company expects sales revenues in a range of EUR 62.0 million to EUR 67.0

million and thus a sales increase of around 25.0%. At the earnings level,

an adjusted EBITDA (operational EBITDA) after customer acquisition costs in

a range of EUR 10.0 million to EUR 12.0 million should be achieved.

With regard to customer acquisition, the company expects marketing costs of

EUR 6.0 million for the current financial period and thus an adjusted

EBITDA before customer acquisition costs of EUR 16.0 million to EUR 18.0

million. The significant decrease in customer acquisition costs compared to

the previous year is the result of a strategic decision to concentrate all

efforts on the planned introduction and implementation (probably in the

second half of 2022) of the company's own 'Smartbroker Cloud Platform'.

Following the market launch of the new 'Smartbroker 2.0', however, the

acquisition of new customers is to be stepped up significantly again, with

the company expecting 55,000 new custody account customers in the current

financial year. In January and February of this year, more than 13,000 new

securities accounts were already opened, which already corresponds to 24.0%

of the annual plan.

With the introduction of its own Smartbroker Cloud platform, the company

expects a significant improvement in its existing brokerage business model

and anticipates positive effects both in terms of revenue and earnings. For

example, wallstreet:online assumes that new target groups can be addressed

through the implementation of its own IT infrastructure and that customer

acquisition costs can be reduced in parallel. In addition, the new IT

platform should cover all digital channels and thus significantly increase

the number of transactions per custody account and at the same time reduce

the costs per transaction execution on the part of the company. The overall

increase in the degree of internationalisation should lead to additional

cash flows and economies of scale in costs.

GBC assessment and evaluation

Based on the company's positive outlook and the currently very convincing

corporate performance, we are raising our previous revenue estimates for

the financial years 2022 and 2023. We now expect revenues of EUR 62.33

million for the current financial year (previously: EUR 61.35 million) and

revenues of EUR 84.02 million in the following year 2023 (previously: EUR

72.55 million). In the following financial year 2024, sales revenues should

increase further to EUR 98.57 million.

In view of the fact that we expect higher expansion and development costs

for the brokerage business (Smartbroker) in the future than was previously

the case, we have adjusted our previous earnings forecasts for the

financial years 2022 and 2023 downwards. For the 2022 and 2023 financial

periods, we now expect EBITDA of EUR 10.04 million (previously: EUR 20.02

million) and EUR 14.05 million (previously: EUR 28.15 million),

respectively. In the following financial year 2024, we expect EBITDA to

increase to EUR 28.73 million.

Overall, we believe that the wallstreet:online group is well positioned in

both business segments (Media, Brokerage) to continue to grow very

dynamically in the future and to further increase profitability. The

planned introduction of our own brokerage platform (Smartbroker 2.0) should

significantly improve the current business model in the transaction

business and thereby enable significantly stronger growth and a

disproportionate increase in earnings through expected economies of scale.

In addition, we expect that the increased combination of the synergetic

media and brokerage business activities will additionally boost the

profitable growth course of the wallstreet:online group.

Based on our new estimates, we have determined a new price target of EUR

38.60 per share within the framework of our DCF valuation model and thus

slightly raised our previous price target (previously: EUR 37.70). Our

price target increase results primarily from the first-time inclusion of

the 2024 financial year in the concrete estimation period and the

associated higher starting level for the continuity phase of the valuation

model. In view of the current share price level, we continue to assign a

Buy rating and see significant upside potential.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

http://www.more-ir.de/d/23695.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen

GBC AG

Halderstraße 27

86150 Augsburg

0821 / 241133 0

research@gbc-ag.de

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Datum und Zeitpunkt der Fertigstellung der Studie: 30.03.2022 (10:27 Uhr)

Datum und Zeitpunkt der ersten Weitergabe: 30.03.2022 (11:00 Uhr)

Gültigkeit des Kursziels: bis max. 31.12.2022

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