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Original-Research: Borussia Dortmund - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Borussia Dortmund
Company Name: Borussia Dortmund
ISIN: DE0005493092
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Kaufen
from: 03.04.2024
Target price: EUR 5.50
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
A big step towards UCL 24/25 as UEFA discloses prize money
On Saturday BVB ended a long drought as the team won away at Bayern Munich
(2-0) for the first time in ten years. Moreover, as Leipzig did not manage
to beat Mainz (1-1), BVB extended the gap to 5th place to three points.
Although 5th place might be sufficient to qualify for the 24/25 UCL in the
unlikely event of Germany finishing 2nd in the UEFA club coefficient,
finishing 4th is the safe way to go as it guarantees a spot in the highly
lucrative competition.
Mind you, that the upcoming UCL season will be played in a new format with
the total number of games rising from 125 to 189 and consequently an
increased prize money pool of EUR 2.5bn (+25%). In fact, UEFA recently put
out a circular letter explaining the exact distribution of the prize money
to the participants, which will be divided into three different pillars. In
detail:
EUR 670m will be allocated to equal shares, leading to a starting fee of EUR
18.6m (old format: EUR 15.6m).
EUR 914m will be distributed according to individual club performance which
is based on group stage performance as well as knock-out stage progress
(e.g. EUR 11m for round of 16 qualification).
EUR 853m will be distributed according to the 'value pillar', a combination
of the former market pool (based on value of country specific TV market)
and coefficient (10-year coefficient rank) pillars.
More detail on the performance and value pillars is provided in the graphic
on the second page.
Given our base scenario for the next season, in which the club reaches the
round of 16 via the newly implemented knockout round play-offs, BVB will
earn EUR 79.4m in TV marketing revenues from the newly
formatted UCL. This is 17% more compared to our base case for the old
format. Should BVB reach the quarter-finals like in this season, respective
revenues would amount to EUR 91.9m (eNuW). Mind you, this does not include
additional revenues from match operations thanks to two extra home games
(group stage + play-offs). Moreover, additional TV marketing sales come at
de facto no extra cost, thus driving profitability going forward.
Against the backdrop as well as the continuously undemanding valuation (0.9
EV/sales 23/24e vs peer trading at 3.9x), the stock remains a BUY with an
unchanged PT of EUR 5.50 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29293.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden: www.nuways-ag.com/research.
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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