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Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG
Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG
Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN: AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: HOLD
from: 29.02.2024
Target price: 57.00
Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Record FY'23, dividend hike and better outlook; chg. est. & PT
Topic: Yesterday, FWAG released FY'23 prelims which came in better than
expected. Moreover, management proposed a nearly doubled dividend and
hinted towards a conservative passenger guidance.
Sales remained elevated and showed strong growth of 26% yoy to EUR 232m in Q4
(FY'23: EUR 932m, +35% yoy) thanks to ongoing strong growth of passenger
numbers. Main contributions to the strong sales growth came from the
segments Airport (+29% yoy; 46% of sales) as well as Handling & Security
(+33% yoy; 19% of sales), but also Malta (+22% yoy; 11% of sales). See p. 2
for details.
Albeit being seasonally softer than Q2/Q3, Q4 EBITDA came in better than
expected at EUR 61m, +53% yoy (FY'23: EUR 393m, + 33% yoy) thanks to the better
than expected top line. On the other side, EBITDA margins (Q4: 26.2%, +
4.4pp yoy; FY23: 41.8%, +0.2pp yoy) seem to have reached cruising altitude,
as additional OPEX (Q4: + 21% yoy; FY'23: +32% yoy) are also incurred from
passenger growth.
In Q4, EPS grew less strong compared to EBITDA at EUR 0.13 (+16% yoy; eNuW: EUR
0.03), mainly due to the EUR 10m oneoff stemming from the penalty for the
early debt repayment. However, on a FY basis, EPS grew much stronger than
EBITDA to EUR 2.01 (+56% yoy; eNuW: EUR 1.90) due to constant D&A (+0.6% yoy)
as well as an improved financial result (EUR -4m vs. EUR -9.3m in FY'22).
Consequently, FWAG announced to substantially increase the dividend to EUR
1.32 per share (+70% yoy; eNuW: EUR 1.33 DPS), implying a pay-out ratio of
66% (eNuW: 70%) and dividend yield of 2.6%.
FWAG's strong cash generation (FY'23 CFO: EUR 385m, 204% cash conversion) as
well as its strong net cash position of EUR 362m per Y/E'23 should continue
to cover dividend payments (EUR 111m) and CAPEX needs (EUR 217m), while still
generating some excess cash of EUR 44m during FY'24e, further improving the
net cash position to EUR 400 by Y/E'24e (eNuW). Additionally, this should
also support EPS growth, as the interest received (eNuW: EUR 18m in FY'24e),
should also improve the financial result from EUR -4m in FY'23 to EUR 15.6m in
FY'24e.
Better outlook than previously expected: While management remained cautious
regarding the FY'24e outlook, it highlighted during the CC, that based on
most recent booking data by airlines and travel agencies, the coming summer
looks set to be even better than last year. The current summer schedule
already shows up to 60 airlines featuring about 190 destinations in 67
countries. Given that, the current guidance of c. 39m (+2.7% yoy)
passengers for FY'24e already seems conservative (given that no major
conflicts intensify, negatively affecting air travel), whereas our new
estimate of 39.8m (eNuW old: 39.2m) seems more probable now. Moreover,
current tailwinds stemming from cargo, should also support promising growth
in FY'24e.
As a result, we also raise our sales estimates for FY'24e and beyond.
Consequently, our estimates exceed the current guidance of c. EUR 970m sales
(eNuW: EUR 998m), more than EUR 390m EBITDA (eNuW: EUR 420m) and more than EUR 210m
net income before minorities (eNuW: EUR 220m).
As we roll over valuation to FY'24e and also reflect the increased
estimates in our DCF model (Beta: 1.4, WACC: 8.8%, risk-free rate: 2.5%,
equity risk premium: 4.5%), we increase our PT to EUR 57.00 (old: EUR 52.00),
but nevertheless recommend shareholders to HOLD onto FWAG, as we do not
expect significant share price hikes (only 15% upside to our fair equity
value). For new investors, there is a lot to like about FWAG, except its
current share price.
You can download the research here:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29025.pdf
For additional information visit our website
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Contact for questions
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------transmitted by EQS Group AG.-------------------
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research.
The result of this research does not constitute investment advice
or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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