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Original-Research: UBM Development AG - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu UBM Development AG

Unternehmen: UBM Development AG

ISIN: AT0000815402

Anlass der Studie: Q3 Review

Empfehlung: BUY

seit: 24.11.2023

Kursziel: EUR 31,00

Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten

Letzte Ratingänderung:

Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Q3 displays ongoing transaction market standstill, chg.

Yesterday, UBM released another uninspiring set of quarterly results as the

real estate transaction market continues to be in a complete standstill as

volumes in Europe decreased another 16% qoq. Still, positive news came from

several building permits that were granted during the quarter.

Q3 sales declined 15% yoy to EUR 25m following the ongoing transaction market

standstill as we saw no relevant sales of fully consolidated projects. More

significant contributions came from a couple of residential and office

projects in Poland.

After additional negative valuation effects, mainly stemming from a

shopping center project in Poland as well as negative operating leverage,

Q3 EBITDA came in at a negative EUR 13.0m (vs EUR 3.3m in Q3'22). However,

following the preliminary building permit for the Timber Factory project in

Munich (Baubergerstraße) the purchase price for the second half of the JV

partner's share in the project became due. This mainly drove the positive

financial result of EUR 27.8m in Q3 which led to a Q3 EBT of EUR 14.1m, thus

almost halving the H1 EBT (EUR -17.4m at 9M vs EUR -31.6m after H1).

Visibility remains low, as CEO Winkler stated that at least H1'24 will

likely show no substantial recovery of the market. While this is seen to

push a large number of developers towards the brink of bankruptcy, UBM

remains well prepared for what appears to be a perfect storm for the

company. With c. EUR

160m cash at hand (incl EUR 91m bond repayment in Q4) and de facto no

refinancing event until Q4'25, UBM has a major advantage over most of its

peers and might even allow to snap some lucky-buys, which is however not

the #1 priority at the moment.

Once the market is starting to regain traction, UBM should be in the pole

position thanks to its superior product offering. Mind you, that the

requirements of the EU taxonomy, which also affects real estate AIFs, will

continue to increase. Hence, demand for sustainable properties (72% of

UBM's pipeline is timber construction) should grow further.

Despite the lackluster operating performance YTD, which is in our view

entirely due to market headwinds, the mid-term prospects of UBM remain

fully intact, given the compelling product offering of the company. Remains

a BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 31.00 based on DDM.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

http://www.more-ir.de/d/28399.pdf

Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden

www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.

Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung

oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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