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Original-Research: UmweltBank AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu UmweltBank AG

Unternehmen: UmweltBank AG

ISIN: DE0005570808

Anlass der Studie: Research Note

Empfehlung: BUY

Kursziel: 14.65 EUR

Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023

Letzte Ratingänderung:

Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

Preliminary figures 2022: Successful closing in 2022 as expected; financial

years 2023 and 2024 are to be seen as transformation years; initially

significant decline in earnings expected; target price reduced to EUR14.65;

Rating: BUY

 

According to preliminary figures, UmweltBank AG succeeded in continuing its

growth course in a generally challenging market environment. The further

increase in the balance sheet total by 1.0 % to EUR 6.00 billion (31.12.21: EUR

5.93 billion), which was supported on the assets side by an increase in

environmental loans issued and on the liabilities side by an increase in

customer deposits, is striking.

 

In the preliminary figures, the interest result is not shown separately.

However, despite the increase in the loan portfolio, we expect a decline in

net interest income. This is due in particular to the continued decline in

the interest margin to 0.93 % (previous year: 1.21 %). After the expiry of

the Corona special conditions for the origin of funds, the general increase

in the interest rate level played an important role in this development.

This is because the interest rate increases in the loan portfolio only take

place after the fixed-interest periods have expired or in the case of new

loans. On the other hand, on the liabilities side, customer deposits have

short maturities and thus react more quickly to interest rate increases.

The fact that the net interest, financial and valuation result nevertheless

increased significantly to EUR 74.09 million (previous year: EUR 63.20 million)

is probably primarily due to the net proceeds of approximately EUR 20 million

from the successful sale of a wind farm. 

 

The second revenue stream communicated in the context of the preliminary

figures, the commission and trading result, was slightly below the previous

year's value at EUR 9.35 million (previous year: EUR 9.42 million). The tense

stock market situation of the past financial year is particularly visible

here.

 

Despite the significant increase in earnings, the pre-tax result of EUR 39.19

million (previous year: EUR 38.09 million) is 'only' 2.9 % above the previous

year's value. In October 2022, following the sale of the wind farm,

UmweltBank's management had forecast EBT of approximately EUR 40 million,

which can be considered largely fulfilled. The disproportionately low

development of earnings is, on the one hand, a consequence of the 15.9 %

increase in personnel expenses to EUR 19.88 million (previous year: EUR 17.15

million). This reflects an increase in the workforce on the one hand and

general wage adjustments on the other. In addition, general administrative

expenses, plus other expenses, also rose sharply by 40.1% to EUR 24.36

million (previous year: EUR 17.39 million). The introduction of the new core

banking system (migration process), which is currently being implemented,

alone resulted in expenses of around EUR 3.60 million in the past financial

year. The migration process is also accompanied by a higher level of

personnel commitment, which also explains part of the higher personnel

expenses.

 

Shortly before the publication of the preliminary figures, UmweltBank AG

published its forecast for the current financial year 2023 on 10 February

2023. Accordingly, the anagement Board expects a pre-tax result of

approximately EUR 20 million for the current financial year and thus

anticipates a significant decline in earnings. The reasons for this are an

expected decline in net interest income, which is likely to be influenced

by the general rise in interest rates and the deterioration of conditions

in refinancing transactions with the Bundesbank. In addition, customers are

expected to be cautious in the securities business, which is likely to have

a negative impact on the commission and trading result. Finally, declining

income will be offset by rising expenses from the introduction of the new

core banking system.

 

The resulting decline in income is offset by expected further cost

increases. These are related to the planned further investments in

personnel, i.e. a continuation of the expansion of the workforce, although

less dynamic growth is to be expected here. However, the expenses in

connection with the introduction of the core banking system are likely to

increase particularly strongly. In the 2022 financial year, these amounted

to around EUR 4 million. An increase to around EUR 10 million is expected for

2023, before a decline to around EUR 4 million is anticipated in the coming

2024 financial year. In addition to these costs, the migration process also

ties up personnel capacities. With Atruvia's new system, UmweltBank AG will

offer its customers an improved customer experience, develop new products

and improve internal workflows and processes.

 

In this respect, the company is undergoing a transformation process in the

financial years 2023 and 2024, at the end of which a modern IT

infrastructure will be in place from 2025 and more employees will be

employed at the new company headquarters 'UmweltHaus'. Finally, from 2025

onwards, significant improvements in earnings and results are to be

achieved, also against the background of the then increasing interest

margin.

 

We have taken this development into account in our estimates and made an

adjustment to the company guidance for the current financial year 2023. We

have also reduced the estimates for 2024 and now take into account a

sideways development of the interest margin. Furthermore, we conservatively

assume that securities customers will continue to be cautious. We have

taken into account a significant improvement in revenue and earnings

expected from 2025 onwards in the terminal value of our residual income

model. 

 

The sum of the discounted residual income results in a value amounting to EUR

536.69 million. In view of an outstanding number of shares of 35.66

million, this results in a fair enterprise value per share of EUR 14.65

(previously: EUR 16.00). The reduction in the target price is a consequence

of the significantly adjusted estimates for the specific estimation period

2023 and 2024. Based on the current share price of EUR 12.30 per share, we

continue to assign a BUY rating.

 

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

http://www.more-ir.de/d/26471.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen

GBC AG

Halderstraße 27

86150 Augsburg

0821 / 241133 0

research@gbc-ag.de

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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (1,4,5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter:

http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung

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Date (time) completion of the study: 24.02.23 (1:18 pm)

Date (time) first publication: 27.02.23 (10:00 am)

-übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.

Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung

oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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