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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu ZEAL Network SE

Unternehmen: ZEAL Network SE

ISIN: DE000ZEAL241

Anlass der Studie: Update

Empfehlung: BUY

seit: 05.01.2024

Kursziel: 51

Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten

Letzte Ratingänderung:

Analyst: Henry Wendisch

Online transformation with ongoing momentum

Topic: Yesterday, the state lottery operator DLTB released its 2023 lottery

data, revealing a continuous and strong outperformance of the online

distribution channel.

Online transformation in full swing: In total, lottery players played for

c. EUR 2bn via online channels, marking a solid 10.4% growth and 25% online

penetration in 2023. While brick-and-mortar lottery still accounted for

75% of overall lottery stakes, it could only grow by 0.7% yoy. Hence, the

online transformation remains in full swing and still offers plenty of

growth potential for ZEAL's lottery business, as online penetration still

stands at a mere 25% (vs. 23% in 2022). Going forward, we expect this trend

to continue and catch up to penetration rates of other industries (online

banking: 50%; online music: 80%; online holiday booking: 66%) and other

European countries such as Sweden (48% online penetration and +11% yoy

growth of online in 2022).

Slight outperformance against main competitor: Out of the EUR 2.04bn online

billings, ZEAL should make up a market share of 41.2% in 2023 (vs. 41% in

2022), based on our estimate of EUR 841m billings in FY23e. This implies a

growth rate of 11% yoy, slightly outgrowing the state lottery's landing

page Lotto.de and the federal states' online presences (EUR 1.2bn in

billings, +10% yoy).

Strong current trading due to peaking jackpots. Currently, the jackpots of

both major lottery products are close to record levels resulting in an

increasing user activity. We hence expect solid Q4'23e figures that should

reflect the higher activity levels. Even better, the EuroJackpot currently

peaks at EUR 120m and the Lotto 6aus49 reached its highest jackpot in history

of EUR 48m (EUR 50m maximum jackpot, before Nov' 23: EUR 45m) indicating a strong

start into Q1'24e. Mind you that this is the time, when ZEAL acquires most

of its new users and hence increases marketing activities.

Games roll-out to drive top line in FY'24e: Following the better than

expected first full quarter (Q3'23) of the new Games business, we expect an

improved Q4'23e as well as continous expansion of the rollout throughout

the year, In sum, we expect some additional revenue from Games of EUR 10m,

that comes on top of the intact growth of the lottery business (eNuW: EUR

119m, +12% yoy) for FY'24e.

All in all, ZEAL continues to drive the online transformation while the

Games roll-out should serve as a cherry on top. BUY with unchanged PT of EUR

51.00, based on DCF.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:

http://www.more-ir.de/d/28613.pdf

Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden

www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen

Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden

www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen

NuWays AG - Equity Research

Web: www.nuways-ag.com

Email: research@nuways-ag.com

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag

Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany

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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.

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-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw.

Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung

oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.

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