Card Factory WKN: A114CM ISIN: GB00BLY2F708 Kürzel: 0CT Branche: Handel

Kurs zur CARD FACTORY Aktie
0,715 EUR
+5,54 %+0,038
19. Jan, 22:57:29 Uhr, Lang & Schwarz
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Bilanzpolitiker
Bilanzpolitiker vom 04.01.22 23:42 Uhr
Looking at the income statement, we assert that Card Factory currently is not profitable on a net income basis and even generates very little EBITDA – both due to store closures in connection with the pandemic and people being afraid to visit the stores – but maybe the situation is not as bad as displayed in the income statement. We will see. Since December 2019, the share price dropped from 2.19 USD to a current price of about 0.80 USD. The recovery was temporarily stopped by the announcement of a £225m refinancing at worse conditions, exempli gratia covenant thresholds that include the return to 2.5x leverage (net debt / EBITDA) and 2x interest cover (EBITDA / interest expense). While the first condition was already met during the six months ended 31 July 2021, in order to return to 2.5x leverage, they will need additional quarters. I assume the condition will, as required, be met by January 2023, since pandemic related restrictions are easing in major parts of the UK. At the moment they would need around £100m in EBITDA in order to achieve 2.5x leverage (during the FY ended 31 January 2020 CARD obtained £85.6m in EBITDA) – but I expect them to make large debt principal payments that would lower the required EBITDA significantly. However, as they state in their latest trading update, like-for-like sales were nearly flat during the last quarter compared to 2019. Therefore cash from operations should also be only slightly lower than in 2019. I think the revenues as well as the operating cash flows will appreciate in 2022 through increasing store visits – leading to an amount that is nearly flat compared to 2019. Thus I am assuming an 2022 OCF of £110m (which is ~£19m lower than the 2019 OCF). Regarding CAPEX, a conservative assumption could be £15m (roughly three times 2019 CAPEX; there will surely be postponed expenditures). Therefore, by subtracting CAPEX from our expected OCF, we arrive at £95m in free cash flow. CARD would then trade at a MC / FCF ratio of about 2.1. As for the last twelve months, they accumulated free cash flows of £87.1m (MC / FCF ~2.3). They used £97.4m to repay debt, so there was a cash outflow when considering debt principal payments. In my opinion, Card Factory will recover strongly from the current price. The market obviously assumes that the firm might not be able to achieve revenues comparable to those from 2019 and therefore will not reach substantial levered free cash flows during the next twelve months. I disagree. As I wrote earlier, they already experienced a strong recovery during the latest quarter. What is also interesting, is that they stated that there were less transactions made compared to the same quarter in 2019 but that the average basket value was higher. This could either be due to people avoiding less important store visits as they fear the virus or due to them generally preferring to buy online after they have experienced the comfort. Whatever the truth, I think the fear would diminish as people increasingly get used to the situation. The company should not suffer extremely from customers deciding to buy online since they also use this distribution channel. Competitors will likely gain market share but I do not expect the customer behavior to change dramatically. Mein Artikel zu Card Factory vom 31. Dezember 2021. Sehe bei der Aktie mittelfristig viel Potential.
Bilanzpolitiker
Bilanzpolitiker vom 04.01.22 23:41 Uhr
Card Factory – strong recovery or fast descent? Card Factory is the largest greeting card retailer in the UK with a market share of 33%. It is not as exciting as a tech business that trades at 20 times revenues, but an investment that will probably be more profitable in the mid-term. What is special about Card Factory, is the vertically integrated design, production and retail model which makes it possible for them to offer their products at significantly lower prices than their rivals. Since the firm does not operate in a changing industry this will not pose a disadvantage over the long term. Beyond greeting cards, they also generate revenue through gift wrap, balloons and other gifts. They are active in more than 1000 stores across the UK and Ireland as well as online. Additionally, they serve more than 50% of Aldi’s UK estate. In Australia, they are operating through The Reject Shop as a partner; furthermore they are using franchise arrangements to operate in smaller territories. Their online results only made up around 9.7% of the FY21 sales (be aware of the fact that FY 2021 represents the year ended 31 January 2021) but through its rapid growth, it lessened the impact of the measures in conjunction with the pandemic.
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1 Card Factory
Kursdetails
Geld (bid) 0,695 (7.361)
Brief (ask/offer) 0,735 (7.361)
Spread 5,442
Geh. Stück 0
Eröffnung 0,678
Vortag 0,678
Tageshoch 0,723
Tagestief 0,675
52W Hoch 1,140
52W Tief 0,351
Tagesvolumen
in EUR gehandelt 0 Stk
in GBP gehandelt 924 Tsd. Stk
in CHF gehandelt 0 Stk
Gesamt 924 Tsd. Stk
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Geld/Brief Kurse
Börse Geld Brief Zeit Volumen Kurs
Frankfurt 0,680 0,740 1642579878 19. Jan 0,660 EUR
Berlin 0,680 0,745 1642576152 19. Jan 0,640 EUR
Düsseldorf 0,695 0,720 1642608095 19. Jan 0,700 EUR
Stuttgart 0,685 0,745 1642599346 19. Jan 0,685 EUR
Tradegate 0,700 0,715 1642627622 19. Jan 0,710 EUR
Lang & Schwarz 0,695 0,735 1642629411 19. Jan 0,715 EUR
London 1642523712 18. Jan 924.219 Stk 0,562 GBP
BX Swiss 0,728 0,742 1. Jan 0,000 CHF
ges. 924.219 Stk
Realtime / Verzögert
Börsennotierung
Marktkapitalisierung in EUR
203,4 Mio.
Anzahl der Aktien
341,9 Mio.
Termine
Aktionärsstruktur %
Freefloat 53,13
Teleios Capital Partners LLC 20,02
Artemis Investment Management LLP 9,99
Aberforth Partners LLP 6,66
Stuart Middleton 5,28
Majedie Asset Management Ltd. 4,92
Grundlegende Daten zur CARD FACTORY Aktie
Finanzdaten 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e
KUV - - - - - - -
Ergebnis je Aktie (bereinigt) 0,171 0,15 0,148 -0,04 - - -
Cashflow 72,7 Mio. 85,7 Mio. 110,2 Mio. 73,6 Mio. - - -
Eigenkapitalquote 48,91 % 50,10 % 38,94 % - - - -
Verschuldungsgrad 104,44 99,60 156,79 - - - -
Eigenkapitalrendite - - - - - - -
Gesamtkapitalrendite - - - - - - -
EBITDA - - - - - - -
EBIT 75,5 Mio. 70,8 Mio. 73,6 Mio. -7,5 Mio. - - -
Fundamentaldaten 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e
KCV 9,02 7,05 2,76 - - - -
Dividendenrendite 4,84 % 5,25 % 3,26 % - - - -
Kurs-Gewinn-Verhältnis (KGV) 11,20 11,80 6,00 - - - -
Dividende je Aktie 0,093 0,093 0,029 - - - -
Bilanzdaten 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022e 2023e 2024e
Netto-Provisionsüberschuss - - - - - - -
Umsatzerlöse 422,1 Mio. 436,0 Mio. 451,5 Mio. 285,1 Mio. - - -
Ergebnis vor Steuern 72,6 Mio. 66,6 Mio. 65,2 Mio. -16,4 Mio. - - -
Steuern 14,3 Mio. 15,2 Mio. 13,6 Mio. -2,8 Mio. - - -
Ausschüttungssumme 82,9 Mio. 48,9 Mio. 48,9 Mio. - - - -
Nettoverzinsung - - - - - - -
Zinsertrag - - - - - - -
Gesamtertrag - - - - - - -
Info

Card Factory

Card Factory PLC ist ein britischer Fachhändler von Grußkarten und Geschenkartikeln. Insgesamt betreibt die Gesellschaft über 1.000 Filialen, in denen zahlreiche Karten für jeden Anlass, Partygeschenke, Luftballons, Geschenktüten und Verpackungen, Hochzeitsartikel etc. verkauft werden. Über den Onlineshop können Kunden zudem personalisierte Grußkarten und individuelle Geschenkartikel bestellen.