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Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE - from NuWays AG
30.01.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE
Company Name: 123fahrschule SE
ISIN: DE000A2P4HL9
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 6.1
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY26 to be new inflection year amid delayed reform; chg.
FY26 is increasingly shaping up as the real inflection point for 123f, yet
near-term demand is weakening as customers delay enrollment amid uncertainty
around the timing and impact of the planned driving licence reform. While
the Ministry of Transport aims to make the process cheaper and more digital,
no concrete implementation date has been set and cost reductions may take
until FY27 to materialize (eNuW), according to industry feedback. Meanwhile,
many prospective learners are postponing training in hopes of lower fees,
contributing to a noticeable drop in new registrations reported by driving
schools and industry groups. This creates a temporary demand vacuum with
weakening volumes today while fixed costs remain largely unchanged.
123f is likely less exposed than smaller peers thanks to its strong brand
presence, marketing intensity and superior digital onboarding funnel.
However, even the market leader cannot fully escape a structural slowdown.
As a result, we reset our FY25e-27e estimates to reflect a slower volume
recovery and delayed operating leverage.
At the same time, simulator monetization is seen to ramp slower than
anticipated. Larger investment decisions remain dependent on regulatory
clarity and practical implementation details, delaying order conversions and
pushing meaningful segment contribution further into FY26/27. This dynamic
was already visible in FY25 and now extends into our forward assumptions.
Importantly, this is a timing issue, not a structural deterioration of
demand. Once the reform is enacted, we expect a catch-up effect driven by
lower price points, higher convenience and expanded catchment areas.
However, the cost base was built for faster scaling. Investments into branch
infrastructure, ERP, personnel and simulator capacity were strategically
necessary but now temporarily dilute margins as revenues lag earlier
expectations. As a result, operating leverage unlocks later and more
gradually than previously modeled.
We therefore realign our model to a flatter and later ramp. In practical
terms, this means FY25 becomes a consolidation year rather than the start of
the expected acceleration (eNuW new: EUR 25.7m sales, EUR 0.9m EBITDA). The same
holds true for FY26e, where we assume sales of EUR 29.4m, which still implies
double-digit growth, albeit meaningfully flatter than in our prior model, as
we previously assumed reform implementation already in H1'26e. Our updated
projections reflect a more measured trajectory in which profitability
expands alongside volume normalization, rather than through an abrupt
step-change.
Crucially, competitive positioning has not weakened. Prolonged uncertainty
pressures smaller analogue schools more than scaled operators, reinforcing
consolidation dynamics. 123f remains best positioned to capture market share
once regulatory clarity returns.
Overall, the story shifts from near-term growth to delayed but intact
transformation. We maintain our BUY rating but adjust our PT to EUR 6.10
reflect the revised trajectory.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=56df69e4ed9051a41fd96b4ce57f522f
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https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2268526 30.01.2026 CET/CEST
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