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Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE - from NuWays AG
06.02.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE
Company Name: 123fahrschule SE
ISIN: DE000A2P4HL9
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 6.1
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald
FY25p disappoints; balance sheet clean-up resets the base
On Tuesday evening, 123f released weak FY25 prelims, as one-off expenses and
a comprehensive balance sheet clean-up weighed on the bottom-line. As a
result, EBITDA came in significantly below expectations and guidance. In
detail:
FY25p EBITDA arrived at EUR -1.3m, thus falling short of our estimate (EUR 0.5m)
and the outlook from September (EUR 0.4-1.0m). The main drivers were
non-recurring personnel and operating expenses of c. EUR 0.65m (eNuW: mostly
related to the former CEO's pay package). In addition, management conducted
a systematic review of receivables and is currently assuming a negative
impact of EUR 1.5m, primarily related to training loans granted to students in
earlier cohorts. Those value adjustments became necessary after changes in
the legal framework after loan issuance have impaired enforceability.
Excluding those one-off and non-recurring effects, the adj. EBITDA would
have amounted to EUR 0.85, thus showing underlying yoy improvement.
Looking ahead, management also quantified its EBITDA outlook for FY26,
guiding for a range of EUR 1.5-2.5m. We view this target as achievable, which
is visible in our EUR 1.9m estimate (6.7% margin) that is based on efficiency
gains and the recent expansion of the branch network. We also factor in the
current weak demand situation amid uncertainty around the timing of the new
driving license reform, which leads prospective learners to postpone
training in hopes of lower fees. Yet, management emphasizes that January has
been one of the strongest enrollment months in the company's history, likely
supported by the higher branch count but also improved market reach. In
fact, 123f should be hit much less by the current dynamics given its strong
brand perception and superior digital onboarding funnel. In the long run,
this could even lead further market share gains for 123f, given that a
number of smaller, analogue peers is likely being forced out of the market.
Overall, the long-term prospects of the company remain intact. The
investment case continues to be underpinned by the scalability of its
AI-driven training platform, the increasing relevance of simulator-based
education and the opportunity to gain market share as smaller, analogue
driving schools struggle with rising costs and regulatory complexity. While
near-term volatility remains elevated, these structural advantages support
the long-term growth potential of the business model.
Buy with an unchanged EUR 6.10 PT.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=055b1a8f262385ccbbb4539d65b8ffa0
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https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2272448 06.02.2026 CET/CEST
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