123fahrschule SE (von NuWays AG): BUY 29.10.2026, 09:00 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: 123fahrschule SE - from NuWays AG



29.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to 123fahrschule SE



     Company Name:                123fahrschule SE
     ISIN:                        DE000A2P4HL9



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 6.10
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Philipp Sennewald



9M: Profitability turns visible; chg.



123f released preliminary 9M figures that continue the earnings momentum
seen in H1. Despite the ongoing demand vacuum ahead of the driving school
reform, the group has generated a positive EBITDA in every single month of
FY26 so far. In detail:



Q3 marks a clear earnings step-up. Reported group EBITDA improved to EUR 0.49m
in Q3 (Q3'25: EUR -0.19m), lifting 9M EBITDA by 68% yoy to EUR 1.33m (9M'25: EUR
0.79m). The 9M EBITDA margin thus expanded to 6.8%, up 2.7pp yoy. Sales grew
4.7% yoy to EUR 6.7m in Q3, and 2.1% to EUR 19.7m for 9M. Growth in the core
business was partly offset by the investment restraint at Foerst. In a
market where many peers are reporting declining volumes, this still stands
out positively, in our view.



Cost measures start to pay off. The earnings swing is largely driven by the
efficiency measures taken over the past months. Headcount was reduced from
273 to 249 in H1, mainly in customer service, and roughly half of the lease
contracts have been terminated as theory lessons are set to move to
e-learning with the upcoming reform. With personnel costs still flat yoy in
H1, the savings only started to show from Q3 onwards. Accordingly, segment
EBITDA of the core driving school business rose 120% yoy to EUR 1.04m in 9M
(9M'25: EUR 0.47m). The group-wide rollout of the digital planning tool
EasyPlan also contributed, as it has lifted instructor utilisation and
streamlined branch operations.



FahrerWerk turns the corner. The instructor training subsidiary still
weighed on group earnings as planned, with 9M EBITDA of c. EUR -0.27m.
However, the demand pick-up announced in July is now materialising. In
September, EBITDA was c. 79% above the prior-year month, while total costs
were cut by 12%. Registrations for Q4 course starts are up 119% vs Q1, and
FahrerWerk is receiving bookings more than three months in advance for the
first time. Management therefore expects a break-even to positive EBITDA in
Q4 and sees a clearly positive EBITDA in FY27.



Foerst: demand is there, orders await the reform. The simulator subsidiary
grew 9M sales by 6.5% and remained slightly EBITDA-positive. Demand picked
up over the summer but softened again after the change at the top of the
Federal Transport Ministry at the end of July, as driving schools hold back
investments until the reform is finally passed. That said, current inquiries
would more than fill Foerst's entire production capacity for 2027, which
makes Foerst a clear catch-up candidate for FY27e.



FY26 guidance confirmed. Management reiterated its FY26 EBITDA guidance of EUR
1.5-2.5m and expects a positive Q4 EBITDA at all three entities. Action. We
still sligthly lower our FY estimate given our higher 9m forecast. At the
same time, we trim our FY26e sales to, as the implied Q4 ramp is no longer
realistic given the deferred simulator orders.



Overall, the print shows that 123f's operational clean-up is translating
into earnings, while the reform timing remains the key swing factor for the
top line. We look forward to the FY figures, including cash flow, for
further confirmation. Reiterate BUY, PT EUR 6.10 based on DCF.



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2424280 29.10.2026 CET/CEST