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Original-Research: Almonty Industries Inc. - from Sphene Capital GmbH
03.02.2026 / 12:08 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of Sphene Capital GmbH to Almonty Industries Inc.
Company Name: Almonty Industries Inc.
ISIN: CA0203981034
Reason for the research: Update Report
Recommendation: Buy
from: 03.02.2026
Target price: CAD 20.10 (previously: CAD 13.50)
Target price on sight of: 36 months
Last rating change: -
Analyst: Peter Thilo Hasler, CEFA
Tungsten prices above USD 1,000 trigger share revaluation
In mid-January, the price of tungsten surpassed the USD 1,000 per MTU APT
threshold for the first time. The current reference price of around USD
1,250 per MTU reflects a number of structural and cyclical market influences
that we believe are also of crucial importance to Almonty. A key factor in
price development is the sharp reduction in the market's available supply of
tungsten. China, which controls 82.7% of all global mine production, has
significantly tightened export regulations and state production quotas since
the beginning of 2025. This has led to a substantial decline in (officially)
exported raw material volumes, due to stricter licensing requirements and
lower quotas for tungsten-containing ores and intermediate products such as
APT. This has effectively reduced the global available supply and
exacerbated the shortage of raw materials. In addition, environmental
regulations and regulatory interventions have resulted in production cuts in
key mining regions, further limiting physical output despite existing
demand. As a result, spot inventories of industrial metals such as APT and
concentrates reached historic lows at times, exerting additional upward
pressure on prices. Alongside the supply shortage, geopolitical tensions
have led to increased demand for tungsten products from the defence
industry, where tungsten alloys are used in armour-piercing ammunition,
high-performance tools, and military components. Tungsten's physical
properties make it essentially irreplaceable in the defence industry,
leading to low price elasticity of demand and disproportionate price
increases given the comparatively small and illiquid tungsten market. At the
same time, price levels in the upstream sector (concentrate-related) have
become more prevalent, while margin pressure has emerged in the downstream
sector (e.g. carbide and tool manufacturers)-an indication of the profound
shortage in the raw materials segment, regardless of final demand. In view
of the strong and, in our view, sustainable increase in tungsten prices and
Almonty Industries' new tungsten project in the US, we have again updated
our financial model. Based on our two-stage Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
model, we raise our price target to CAD 20.10 from CAD 13.50 per share. This
revised valuation comprehensively incorporates the net present value of both
current and future producing assets, including the Sangdong mine (tungsten
and molybdenum), Panasqueira, Gentung, and Los Santos, as well as a
discounted assessment of the development-stage Valtreixal project. Based on
this updated valuation, which implies an upside potential of 29.0% from
yesterday's closing price of CAD 15.58, we reiterate our Buy rating for
Almonty Industries.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=f86dd85933bf3ac155eb90a192cfb486
Contact for questions:
Peter Thilo Hasler, CEFA
+49 (152) 31764553
peter-thilo.hasler@sphene-capital.de
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2270570 03.02.2026 CET/CEST
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