Aspermont Ltd. (von GBC AG): Buy 11.08.2026, 13:00 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: Aspermont Ltd. - from GBC AG



11.08.2026 / 13:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of GBC AG to Aspermont Ltd.



     Company Name:                Aspermont Ltd.
     ISIN:                        AU000000ASP3



     Reason for the research:     Research Comment
     Recommendation:              Buy
     Target price:                5.20 AUD
     Target price on sight of:    30.09.2027
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker



Q3 marks the transition from platform investment to visible operating
leverage; Data & Intelligence strategy increasingly validated; BUY rating
confirmed, price target adjusted to AUD 5.20



Aspermont's third-quarter results provide the clearest evidence to date that
the operational transformation outlined in our previous research reports is
beginning to translate into improved financial performance. When we resumed
coverage in March 2026, our investment case centred on the transition from a
traditional specialist publisher to a scalable, subscription-led data and
intelligence platform. In our June update, we highlighted that the
completion of the main investment phase and the launch of the first
Mining-IQ applications should gradually unlock operating leverage. The
latest figures support this thesis: revenue reached a record level, while
normalised EBITDA returned to break-even despite continued investment in new
products.



In the third quarter of 2025/26, Aspermont generated revenue of AUD 4.50
million, compared with AUD 3.60 million in the prior-year quarter,
corresponding to growth of 25%. Normalised EBITDA improved to approximately
break-even, following a loss of AUD 0.60 million in the same period of the
previous year. This represents a significant operational improvement and
indicates that revenue growth is increasingly translating into earnings. The
quarter therefore marks an important step in the transition from several
years of platform investment toward a more scalable and profitable business
model.



The revenue composition also demonstrates that growth is becoming more
broadly based. Subscription and Data Licensing revenue increased by 4% to
AUD 2.60 million, compared with AUD 2.50 million in the prior-year period.
Other revenue advanced by 73% to AUD 1.90 million, up from AUD 1.10 million.
This primarily reflects the strong development of Advertising, Nexus and
Events. The Future of Mining Perth event, which was held in the third
quarter rather than the fourth quarter as in the previous year, also
contributed to the particularly strong quarterly performance.



For the first nine months of 2025/26, total revenue increased by 18% to AUD
11.90 million, compared with AUD 10.10 million in the previous year.
Subscription and Data Licensing revenue reached AUD 7.60 million, up
slightly from AUD 7.50 million. Advertising and Nexus revenue increased to
AUD 3.10 million from AUD 2.60 million, while Events contributed AUD 1.20
million. The figures show that the established publishing and subscription
activities continue to provide a stable revenue base, while adjacent digital
services and events are increasingly supporting growth.



Annual recurring revenue has now exceeded AUD 11.0 million, with
like-for-like growth currently tracking at approximately 7% to 8%, below the
medium-term target of more than 10%. However, we see a credible path back to
double-digit growth as several enterprise agreement discussions are
currently progressing. We expect that two additional contract wins could be
sufficient to lift ARR growth above 10%. In our view, the next phase is
increasingly about monetising the existing platform and customer
relationships rather than building additional infrastructure.



Mining IQ is central to this next phase. The announced AUD 0.55 million Rio
Tinto project provides important validation of Aspermont's Data &
Intelligence strategy. Following delivery of the historical archive, Rio
Tinto is expected to receive six months of platform access, creating the
potential for recurring revenues thereafter. More broadly, expanding access
to Aspermont's daily data offering could support materially higher contract
values. Longer term, combining historical, daily proprietary, partner and
third-party data could transform individual projects into larger recurring
enterprise relationships.



The timing of two larger Nexus contracts with a combined value of
approximately AUD 1.5 million has shifted. Importantly, these are project
contracts rather than recurring Data & Intelligence revenues. We expect one
contract to progress during the fourth quarter, while the second could move
into FY2026/27. Consequently, only a limited contribution from these
projects is likely to be recognised in the current financial year. We regard
this primarily as a timing issue rather than an indication of weaker
underlying demand, but it reduces the likelihood of reaching our previous
FY2025/26 revenue forecast.



Cash remains an important short-term consideration, with the balance
standing at AUD 0.90 million as of 30 June 2026. However, the financing
position is stronger than the cash balance alone suggests. Aspermont holds
15 million shares in Tiko, representing approximately 5% of the company and
providing meaningful additional liquidity optionality as the existing escrow
restrictions gradually expire. We therefore believe that Aspermont has
additional flexibility to finance the continued build-out of its Data &
Intelligence activities without necessarily requiring an equity raise.



We reduce our FY2025/26 revenue forecast from AUD 16.90 million to AUD 16.10
million. Based on nine-month revenue of AUD 11.90 million, this implies Q4
revenue of approximately AUD 4.20 million. The adjustment primarily reflects
the delayed timing of the larger Nexus projects rather than weaker
underlying trading. We also now expect FY2025/26 EBITDA to remain negative.
Importantly, we continue to expect a significant improvement in FY2026/27
and FY2027/28 as enterprise contracts, Data & Intelligence revenues and
operating leverage increasingly contribute to the earnings profile.



Following the increase in the risk-free rate from 3.00% to 3.50%, the
revision to our forecasts and the increase in shares outstanding to
11,756,686, our updated DCF model yields a forward price target of AUD 5.20
(previously: AUD 5.45), corresponding to the FY2026/27 fair value. We
therefore confirm our BUY rating.



Overall, Q3 and the subsequent developments strengthen our longer-term
investment case despite a more conservative near-term forecast. The key
development is that the Data & Intelligence opportunity is becoming
increasingly tangible, with Rio Tinto providing an early blueprint for
moving from individual data projects toward materially larger recurring
enterprise relationships. At the same time, the Tiko holding provides
additional financing flexibility. We also regard a potential UK listing
positively, particularly as Aspermont increasingly aligns its business and
reporting structure with international data and information companies such
as RELX. The key catalysts are now enterprise contract wins, Data &
Intelligence commercialisation and sustainable positive cash flow.





You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=2c4e1623b020f98a418d9e97c7d82b4e



Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Completion: 11.08.2026 (09:00 a.m.)
First distribution: 11.08.2026 (01:00 p.m.)



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2380630 11.08.2026 CET/CEST