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Original-Research: Cenit AG - from GBC AG
07.11.2025 / 10:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of GBC AG to Cenit AG
Company Name: Cenit AG
ISIN: DE0005407100
Reason for the research: Research Comment
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 16.00
Target price on sight of: 31.12.2026
Last rating change:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann
Analysis Prime weighs on revenue and earnings; forecast and price target
lowered, BUY rating confirmed
Although CENIT AG achieved a slight increase in revenue of 1.8% to EUR154.20
million after nine months (previous year: EUR151.43 million), this growth was
primarily attributable to the first-time inclusion of Analysis Prime, which
was acquired in July 2024. However, this effect is limited to the first six
months and, according to our findings, is likely to have amounted to around
EUR6 million. Adjusted for this effect, the company would have had to accept a
decline in revenue of around 2% in the first nine months of 2025. This
development is in line with the generally difficult market situation, which
is affecting the automotive industry in particular as CENIT AG's most
important customer sector.
The difficult market environment is particularly evident in the figures
broken down by sales groups. Sales of third-party software (Dassault, SAP,
IBM) declined to EUR74.34 million (previous year: EUR75.70 million). However,
this was offset by increased sales of high-margin proprietary software
amounting to EUR14.15 million (previous year: EUR13.63 million). As expected,
recurring revenues are becoming increasingly important. They now account for
80.3% (previous year: 76.4%) of revenues from CENIT software. Finally,
consulting revenues showed the most visible jump to EUR65.49 million (previous
year: EUR61.98 million). This is primarily due to the inorganic effect of the
acquisition of Analysis Prime in 2024.
Despite the increase in sales, EBIT was significantly below the previous
year's figure of EUR3.97 million at EUR-1.50 million. This is primarily due to
special expenses for the implementation of the 'Project Performance'
restructuring programme, which resulted in a reduction of just over 50
employees. The programme, which is now largely complete, led to a reduction
in the workforce to 914 (31 December 2024: 984), while at the same time
incurring special expenses of EUR4.0 million. The first positive effects were
already visible in the third quarter, in which a significant reduction in
personnel expenses was achieved compared to the first two quarters, leading
to a noticeable improvement in EBIT to EUR2.18 million (Q1 25: EUR-5.44 million;
Q2 25: EUR1.75 million). Another factor weighing on earnings was the negative
EBIT contribution from Analysis Prime, which totalled EUR-2.6 million in the
first nine months of 2025.
CENIT AG is implementing a liquidity-preserving strategy in the current 2025
financial year. Accordingly, no acquisitions are planned for 2025. Together
with the high operating cash flow of EUR12.59 million (previous year: EUR9.91
million), cash and cash equivalents improved to EUR20.42 million (31 December
2024: EUR16.46 million). At the same time, bank liabilities were reduced to
EUR37.23 million (31 December 2024: EUR49.03 million), which led to a visible
improvement in the balance sheet ratios.
For CENIT management, the guidance adjusted in the 2025 half-year report
remains valid even after nine months. Revenue of at least EUR205 million and
EBIT of at least EUR-1.5 million are still expected. In view of the figures
achieved in the first nine months, this forecast now appears defensive. This
is particularly the case in light of the restructuring measures that have
now been finalised. This means that no further extraordinary expenses will
be incurred in the fourth quarter of 2025, but that the positive savings
effects should have an even greater impact. Although Analysis Prime is
likely to report a negative result in the fourth quarter as well, this
should be offset by the positive effects.
We assume that the fourth quarter, which is typically the strongest quarter
of the year for CENIT AG in terms of revenue, will remain below the previous
year's figure, but that revenue growth will be achieved compared to the
third quarter. We are therefore maintaining our revenue estimates of EUR208.95
million unchanged. However, we are adjusting our expected EBIT, which we are
raising to EUR0.82 million (previously: EUR-0.28 million). We assume that the
EBIT margin for the fourth quarter will remain unchanged compared to the
third quarter.
We are keeping our estimates for the coming financial years unchanged. In
addition to rising sales, CENIT AG should benefit from cost effects.
Furthermore, CENIT's management also expects Analysis Prime to make a
positive contribution to earnings from 2026 onwards. The adjustment of the
estimates for the current financial year has only a minor impact on the
result of the DCF valuation model, which is why we are maintaining our price
target of EUR16.00 unchanged. We continue to assign a 'BUY' rating.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=2548f002769a60e981727588e0bbf26f
Contact for questions:
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Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest pursuant to Section 85 WpHG
and Art. 20 MAR The company analysed above has the following potential
conflict of interest: (5a,6a,7,11); A catalogue of potential conflicts of
interest can be found at:
https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Date and time of completion of the study: 06/11/25 (06:01 pm)
Date and time of the first dissemination of the study: 07/11/25 (10:00 pm)
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2225494 07.11.2025 CET/CEST
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