CENIT AG (von GBC AG): BUY 25.03.2026, 14:30 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: CENIT AG - from GBC AG



25.03.2026 / 14:30 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
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Classification of GBC AG to CENIT AG



     Company Name:                CENIT AG
     ISIN:                        DE0005407100



     Reason for the research:     Research Comment
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 15.00
     Target price on sight of:    31.12.2026
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Cosmin Filker; Marcel Goldmann



Preliminary figures exceed the company's guidance; guidance for 2026 is
slightly more conservative than expected



According to preliminary figures, CENIT AG achieved a significant
improvement in operating performance in fiscal year 2025, particularly in
the fourth quarter. With consolidated revenue of EUR209.5 million for the full
year (previous year: EUR207.3 million), the company met the revenue guidance
of at least EUR205 million, which had been adjusted in the 2025 half-year
report. Our previous estimates, in which we had anticipated revenue of
EUR208.95 million, were also slightly exceeded. At EUR55.3 million (previous
year: EUR55.9 million), the revenue level for the fourth quarter of 2025
matched the already strong figure from the previous year. Particularly
noteworthy is the development of proprietary software revenue, which
increased by 11.2% to EUR21.4 million (previous year: EUR19.3 million). In the
fourth quarter of 2025, this figure reached a new all-time quarterly record
of EUR7.3 million (previous year: EUR5.6 million).



This is likely to have contributed, among other factors, to the EBITDA of
EUR12.3 million (previous year: EUR17.3 million), which exceeded our
expectations. The decline in earnings compared to the previous year is
primarily attributable to special expenses related to the implementation of
the "Project Performance" restructuring program. As part of this program,
the number of employees was reduced by over 50. This resulted in special
expenses of approximately EUR4.0 million. Furthermore, the earnings picture is
likely also influenced by the negative earnings of the subsidiary Analysis
Prime, acquired in 2024. On the other hand, there are positive effects from
the cost savings implemented. This is evident from the EBITDA of EUR6.6
million achieved in the fourth quarter of 2025, which represents a
significant jump compared to the EBITDA of the previous quarters. While
EBITDA exceeded our expectations (GBC forecast: EUR10.9 million), the reported
preliminary EBIT of EUR0.3 million (GBC forecast: EUR0.8 million) fell short of
our expectations. We assume that extraordinary write-downs, for example
related to the customer base of Analysis Prime, likely led to unexpectedly
high write-downs here. However, CENIT's guidance was fully met for both
revenue and EBIT. In addition, the strong increase in operating cash flow to
EUR14.1 million (previous year: EUR10.3 million) and the planned further
reduction in bank liabilities are worth noting, which lowered net bank debt
to EUR17.1 million (previous year: EUR23.8 million).



In our view, the outlook for 2026 is particularly significant. CENIT
management forecasts revenue of at least EUR210.0 million and EBITDA of at
least EUR18.0 million for 2026. Even though this formulation naturally
represents a lower bound, these figures fall short of our previous
expectations (previous revenue forecast: EUR221.4 million, previous EBITDA
forecast: EUR22.2 million). Since we believe the company has taken a
conservative approach in formulating its guidance (Dassault's 2026 software
revenue forecast: +3% to +5%; SAP's 2026 total revenue forecast: +12% to
+13%), we are revising our estimates downward for the current and upcoming
fiscal years. We now expect revenue of EUR214.7 million and EBITDA of EUR19.8
million for 2026, and revenue of EUR227.6 million and EBITDA of EUR23.6 million
for 2027 (previous estimate: revenue EUR233.2 million; EBITDA EUR25.0 million).



Based on the updated DCF valuation model, we have determined a new price
target of EUR15.00 (previously: EUR16.00). We therefore maintain our BUY rating.
We will provide a detailed overview of business performance in 2025, our
forecasts, and the inclusion of a new forecast period (2028e) following the
publication of the annual report on April 9, 2026.





You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=371f3654bd7d791317aa0dbc5a6efffc



Contact for questions:
Contact for questions:
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
++++++++++++++++
Disclosure of potential conflicts of interest pursuant to Section 85 WpHG
and Art. 20 MAR The company analysed above has the following potential
conflict of interest: (5a,6a,7,11); A catalogue of potential conflicts of
interest can be found at: https://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm
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Date (time) Completion: 25.03.2026 (1:00 pm)
Date (time) first transmission: 25.03.2026 (2:30 pm)



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2297680 25.03.2026 CET/CEST