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Original-Research: INDUS Holding AG - from NuWays AG
27.03.2025 / 09:02 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of NuWays AG to INDUS Holding AG
Company Name: INDUS Holding AG
ISIN: DE0006200108
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 27.03.2025
Target price: EUR 34.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Solid FY24 numbers and promising mid-term outlook; chg.
Topic: INDUS released solid final FY24 numbers in line with prelims and
presented its mid-term targets for 2030 at the CMD in Frankfurt. Here are
our key takeaways:
To recap, FY24 sales decreased 4.5% yoy to EUR 1,722m due to macroeconomic
headwinds especially in the construction industry and pricing pressure in
Materials Solutions (former Materials). Q4 sales came in at EUR 440m, flat
yoy. Order intake decreased across all segments to EUR 1,611 in total with a
book-to-bill of 0.94x and 3.7% below last year due to a persistently weak
economy. Consequently, the order backlog decreased 10.4% yoy to a low level
of EUR 637m. FY adj. EBITA came in at EUR 154m, -18.3% yoy due to a top-line
decrease and higher personnel expenses (+3% yoy) despite 161 fewer
employees. This leads to a still solid 8.9% adj. EBITA margin (-1.5ppts)
considering the current economic environment.
Engineering FY sales remained flat yoy (-0.5%) but adj. EBITA decreased by
21.5% due to an unfavorable product mix in H1. Infrastructure recorded a
3.9% decline in sales, however, with a 2.9% increase in adj. EBITA thanks to
a reduction of 7.4% yoy in cost of materials and a positive one-time effect
from the sale of a non controlling interest in BETOMAX for EUR 2.6m. Sales in
the Materials Solutions segment dropped by 8.9% and adj. EBITA
disproportionately by 25.2% yoy due to a weak metals sector and pricing
pressure. In particular suppliers of the construction and agricultural
industry are currently facing low demand.
On a regional sales split, top-line in Germany decreased by 8.2% (48% of
total sales), while sales in EU declined by only 4.5% and in third countries
even increased by 1.8% yoy. The continued investment reluctance in Germany
and a still muted GDP growth forecast of 0.3% for FY25e by the IMF, gave
INDUS
reason to expand its geographic M&A scope. Growth acquisitions will be
expanded to Europe and add-on acquisitions are searched globally with a
particular focus on North America. This is positive news in our view, as
INDUS will become less dependent on the German economy and can now search
more opportunistically in different geographies for value accretive M&A
targets.
Ambitious mid-term target: Management aims for sales of EUR 3bn and adj. EBITA
of EUR 330m until FY30e, not factoring in any potential impact of Germany's EUR
500bn infrastructure special fund. EUR 700m additional sales are expected to
come from organic growth (implied 5.9% CAGR) and EUR 600m from acquisitions,
for which the company plans to spend approximately EUR 500m. INDUS sees a huge
market potential for succession solutions in Europe. Around 90% of family
businesses in Europe see an external investor as a suitable succession
option and long-term oriented investors such as INDUS who preserve the DNA
of the target business are often preferred by Mittelstand companies.
Although we believe the targeted 11% adj. EBITA margin is well in reach, we
take a more conservative view on organic top-line growth. Thus, we estimate
INDUS to reach c. EUR 500m organic sales growth until FY30e (implied 4.3%
CAGR).
FY25e guidance in reach: INDUS expects sales between EUR 1.75-1.85bn (eNuW: EUR
1.79bn) and adj. EBITA in the range of EUR 150-175m (eNuW: EUR 164m) for the
current year. Although a yoy decline in backlog, the guidance looks
plausible in our view supported by EUR 28m annualized sales contribution from
INDUS' acquisitions since the start of the year. Further, the acquisitions
made in FY24 have an annualized sales contribution of c. EUR 35m (vs. EUR 18.4m
recorded sales in FY24).
We reiterate BUY with unchanged PT of EUR 34, based on FCFY25e.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32072.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2107200 27.03.2025 CET/CEST
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