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Original-Research: INDUS Holding AG - from NuWays AG
09.05.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of NuWays AG to INDUS Holding AG
Company Name: INDUS Holding AG
ISIN: DE0006200108
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 09.05.2025
Target price: EUR 34.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
FY'25e outlook reduced due to tungsten supply chains; chg. est.
Topic: On Wednesday evening, INDUS reduced its FY'25e guidance, especially
due to a soft Materials Solutions segment, which is impacted by the 10% base
tariff on US exports, effective April 5. Further, extended export controls
on tungsten compounds from China, put pressure on the supply chain of INDUS'
largest holding BETEK (16% of FY'24 sales).
Management changed its FY'25 sales forecast to EUR 1.70-1.85bn (previously EUR
1.75-1.85bn; eNuW old EUR 1.79bn) and adj. EBITA to EUR 130-165m (previously EUR
150-175m; eNuW old EUR 164m). Materials Solutions is expected to be
particularly soft partly due to the recently introduced tariffs on US
exports.
However, even more important in our view are extended Chinese export
controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium, effective
since February 2025. BETEK, a specialist in tungsten carbide wear solutions,
depends on tungsten-containing primary products from China and was
responsible for around half of Materials Solutions sales and 16% of group
sales in FY'24. China was responsible for 82% of the global tungsten
production in 2024 and is thus a critical supplier for the whole industry.
Whether an export license will be granted, to what extent and how long it
will take is currently unpredictable. If supply chains are not restored in
time, missing tungsten carbide could result in a EUR 20-40m revenue loss and a
EUR 8-15m EBITA reduction in H2'25e according to management. However, as a
recovery of tungsten carbide supply is currently still in the cards, the
top-line guidance was only adjusted on the lower end. In our view, a
noticeable impact for FY'25 looks highly likely and for FY'26 plausible.
Having said that, the case remains fully intact. Neither tariffs nor a
short-term supply shortage is damaging BETEK's competitive position based on
technological leadership in the long-term. Nevertheless, we reduced our
estimates, as we conservatively expect a supply shortage and price increase
of tungsten carbide to affect FY25e and FY26e.
Reiterate BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 34 per share, based on FCFY'25e.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32526.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2133674 09.05.2025 CET/CEST
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