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Original-Research: LAIQON AG - from NuWays AG
08.09.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of NuWays AG to LAIQON AG
Company Name: LAIQON AG
ISIN: DE000A12UP29
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 08.09.2025
Target price: EUR 11.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Soft H1, but large acquisition to drive earnings
Last week, LAIQON released soft H1 results but issued a new mid-term
guidance following a large AuM acquisition. In detail:
Despite 8% yoy higher AuM, reported H1 sales came in muted and declined by
4% yoy to EUR 14.2m mainly due to the planned phase-out of sold business units
(EUR -0.4m sales effect).
On the other hand, a relatively lower sales commission (material expense
ratio -3.8pp yoy to 12.7% of sales) as well as a positive effect stemming
from a EUR 2.8m government research grant, led to an improved reported EBITDA
of EUR -0.8m (vs. EUR -2.9m in H1'24). However, excluding the positive effect
from the research grant as well as EUR 0.2m negative one-off from the
MainFirst acquisition, H1'25 underlying EBITDA would have been at EUR -3.4m,
stemming from the negative operating leverage of the sales decline.
Large and profitable AuM acquisition to foster profitable turn-around:
Having acquired EUR 2.5bn AuM from MainFirst (including key personnel) at the
start of July'25, the deal should yield some EUR 14m in additional, margin
accretive revenues (on FY basis; implying a 0.56% sales margin on AuM vs.
0.37% in the Asset Management segment) and is to be financed by own
cash-flows in the form of future earn-out payments as well as the issuance
of a new EUR 10m corporate bond 25/30 (5.5% interest rate). In an as-if
scenario (assuming the acquisition as of Jan 1st), H1'25 sales would have
been at EUR 24.9m and EBITDA at EUR 1.4m (i.e. EUR 7.3m sales with a 30% EBITDA
margin from MainFirst assets in H1), highlighting the deal's margin
accretion to the group. Consequently, we expect a strong development in H2
with sales expanding by 55% yoy to EUR 25m (thereof 12% yoy organically and
43% yoy inorganically) as well as a positive EBITDA of EUR 3m implying a 45%
incremental margin on the back of the profitable acquisition and operating
leverage.
Detailed new guidance and mid-term targets issued: with currently EUR 9.8bn
AuM (31.08.2025, incl. the acquisition), LAIQON projects AuM to further grow
to EUR 10-11.5bn by Y/E'25e and to more than EUR 15bn by Y/E'28e (14% CAGR
H1'25-FY'28e) based on a strong and growing full-service offering attracting
new clients and international expansion (first foothold in Belgium already
established). Especially the launch of a new AI-managed, active ETF with a
so far undisclosed partner in the Top 5 (Blackrock, DWS, Vanguard, Amundi
and State Street) is projected for Dec'25e and should tap the large retail
market. On top, LAIQON is currently in talks with another Asset Manager
(similar to Union Investment) for its white-label solution "Wertanlage".
Additionally, opportunistic acquisitions might come on top, but are not
reflected in the guidance. This should translate into EUR 53-58m sales with a
8-14% EBITDA margin in FY'26e (eNuW: EUR 54m, 11% margin) and to more than EUR
82m sales with a 33% EBITDA margin by FY'28, both including performance
fees.
All in all, LAIQON is nearing the path for sustainable profitability after
years of investments. With the prospect of a dividend capability as of
FY'26e, the shares remain undervalued in our view. Therefore, we reiterate
our BUY recommendation and raise our DCF-based PT to EUR 11.00 (old. EUR 7.40),
following the incorporation of MainFirst assets into our model.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=f7c24cd4b0999b139cf6038cd1316931
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2194032 08.09.2025 CET/CEST
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