MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): BUY 15.07.2026, 09:00 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG - from NuWays AG



15.07.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG



     Company Name:                MHP Hotel AG
     ISIN:                        DE000A3E5C24



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 3.7
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Philipp Sennewald



Another premium hotel added to the pipeline; PT up



Yesterday, MHP announced yet another long-term operating deal for a hotel in
the upper up-scale segment to the contracted pipeline. A deal, that in our
view, ticks all boxes of managements premium expansion strategy. In detail:



By 2029, MHP, together with project developer Midstad, will develop and
conceptualize a 180 room Autograph Collection (Marriott brand) hotel in
withing the historic Kasernenstraße / Carsch-Haus ensemple in immediate
proximity to Düsseldorf's Königsallee. The hotel will be part of a newly
developed mixed-use quarter, combining hotel, high-quality retail and F&B
space, a fact that should support footfall and enhance the long-term
attractiveness of the micro-location. Targeted DGNB and WiredScore Platinum
certifications further underpin the institutional quality of the asset.



Strategically, the deal combines all key elements of MHP's expansion
playbook: a prime inner-city location in a German top-7 market, an
internationally established brand with access to the Marriott Bonvoy network
(> 230m members), a structural demand advantage that should directly
translate into occupancy and rate potential as well as the proven capital
light lease & franchise structure. Notably, this already marks the second
Autograph Collection in the pipeline after Stuttgart (2028), in our view a
strong sign of Marriott's trust into MHP's hotel management capabilities.
Given the location profile adjacent to the Königsallee and the envisaged
gastronomy concept within the ensemble, we would expect an F&B share at
least in line with the group average (eNuW: c. 25%), one of MHP's structural
strengths (Q1'26 F&B sales +36% yoy).



In a steady-state scenario, management guides for an annual sales potential
of EUR 20m, which should come at a 7-8% EBITDA margin (eNuW), given the
estimated 25% F&B share. In light of the company's strong cash conversion
amid the limited capex needs, this should translate into roughly EUR 1.1m
annual FCF added (75% conversion).



Combined with the existing pipeline (Sheraton Vienna in 2027, AC Düsseldorf
in 2028 & MOOONS Frankfurt in 2029), we estimate an overall steady-state
(eNuW: achievable until FY32e) sales bump of c. EUR 60-65m and thus an EBITDA
EUR 5.1-5.5m (eNuW; Note: MOOONS carries higher margins).



In our view, the transaction fully plays into the investment case of a
scaling, asset-light hotel platform operator with proven access to
high-entry barrier premium assets. Following the recently increased free
float (now 25%) and continued operating momentum (Q1 sales up 25%), the
equity story keeps unfolding while the stock continues to trade at a mere
4.6x FY26e EV/adj. EBITDA.



We hence confirm BUY with a raised PT of EUR 3.70 (old: EUR 3.50) based on DCF,
reflecting the contribution of the AC Düsseldorf from FY29e onwards.





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https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=26d55d5c666e7d7ad9a047056bb3973f
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2365956 15.07.2026 CET/CEST