MHP Hotel AG (von NuWays AG): BUY 09.10.2026, 09:00 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: MHP Hotel AG - from NuWays AG



09.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to MHP Hotel AG



     Company Name:                MHP Hotel AG
     ISIN:                        DE000A3E5C24



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 3.50
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Philipp Sennewald



Buyback underlines attractive valuation



Yesterday, MHP announced a voluntary public share buyback offer for up to
4.4m shares (c. 9.5% of share capital) at EUR 1.35 per share, a c. 7% premium
to the 3-day XETRA average. The acceptance period runs from 13 October to 2
November 2026. The offer is open to free float holders only, as the founding
shareholders (c. 75% of share capital) will not tender. Here is our take on
the matter:



From a theoretical point of view, a buyback 61% below our fair value usually
creates shareholder value. In this case, it would lift EPS for remaining
shareholders by up to 10%. In practice however, for a stock with already
limited liquidity, EPS accretion is unlikely to be a meaningful share price
driver, in our view.



Reacting on the overhang. Following the capital increase in July '25 and the
secondary placement this June, free float increased by 9pp to 25%. This
additional supply apparently weighed on the share price in recent months.
This now offers holders who seek liquidity an exit opportunity at a premium.
On the flip side, a fully subscribed offer would cover almost 40% of the
free float, reducing it to c. 17% (eNuW, given cancellation). This would
almost entirely undo the improvements made on that front since last summer,
when free float was at 16%. Moreover, issuing and repurchasing shares in
such short succession sends a mixed message on capital allocation strategy.



The founders' decision not to tender is a signal of commitment and
underlines management's view that the share price is too low. Thanks to the
asset-light model, the pipeline should remain unaffected, consistent with
our FCF estimates. Yet the buyback does not address the, in our view, more
relevant reason for the recent share price weakness, which is the FY25
EBITDA miss and the guidance cut that came with H1'26. A sustained recovery
will require evidence that Conrad Hamburg occupancy is catching up and that
the portfolio can absorb temporary demand headwinds from the highly
lucrative Middle East customers.



Overall, the buyback is a pragmatic step to relieve some supply pressure
rather than a fundamental catalyst. That said, as implied by our PT, the
offer price does not reflect the earnings potential of the portfolio once
has Conrad ramped up and the pipeline openings start to contribute. From a
valuation point of view, we therefore do not recommend investors to tender.
However, for investors looking to exit a sizeable position, this might be an
opportunity that could be rare in the future.



Apart from this, we continue to like the equity story. MHP is the leading
white-label operator in the DACH premium segment, with privileged access to
high-barrier assets that come with limited capital commitment. With premium
demand structurally unbroken the earnings power of the enlarged portfolio
should come through from FY27e onwards. Currently, this is not at all
reflected in the share price.



Reiterate BUY with an unchanged EUR 3.50 PT.



You can download the research here:
https://nwr.eqs-cockpit.com/fncls2.ssx?fn=redirect&u=aabc57bbedb66fc730530057d56d4eaf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2413032 09.10.2026 CET/CEST