^
Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG
01.08.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE
Company Name: MLP SE
ISIN: DE0006569908
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 01.08.2025
Target price: EUR 13.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Q2 preliminary EBIT out, no cause for headaches.
Topic: Yesterday, MLP announced its preliminary Q2 EBIT to arrive at only EUR
5m but confirmed its FY25 guidance. Here's our view:
In a seasonally weak second quarter, MLP has reported a preliminary EBIT of
EUR 5m, which is "significantly below" the prior year figure (Q2'24 EBIT: EUR
11.7m) and triggered therefore the legal obligation to ad-hoc this
information. However, the EBIT figure should not be a big surprise and no
reason for headaches for several reasons:
Seasonally weak second quarters are the norm at MLP. In the past, the second
quarter is seasonally weak and have low operating leverage (seasonally lower
sales with stable fixed costs). The FY share of Q2 EBITs' usually ranges
between 5-10% of the FY EBIT (ex performance fees), showing the minor
importance of Q2. On the other hand, Q1 ("non-life quarter") and Q4
("old-age quarter") traditionally carry a larger revenue and earnings share
and are thus much more important for MLP's FY results.
Absence of performance fees in Q2. FERI's funds should not have triggered
meaningful performance fees in Q2'25. However, the comparable base of Q2'24
had a positive EUR 5.4m performance fee contribution, which alone explains a
negative EUR 3.5m EBIT effect yoy (eNuW, assuming a 65% incremental EBIT
margin of performance fees).
Lower interest rate environment. Also unsurprisingly, MLP's banking business
should have yielded a lower net interest income (NIC) in Q2'25 (eNuW: EUR
11.2, down by EUR 3m or 21% yoy) than in Q2'24. Here, we estimate a 85%
incremental EBIT margin on the NIC, which implies another EUR 2.5m negative
EBIT effect yoy.
RE recovery does not come over night. On the other hand, the lower interest
rate environment should foster the RE business of MLP. However, this
business cannot be switched on or off over night but takes time to show
improving results and to make up for the decline in the banking business.
Here, for the segment "Deutschland.Immobilien", we expect a positive, but
under proportionate rise in EBIT from EUR -4m in Q2'24 to EUR -2m in Q2'25e,
thus posing a positive EUR 2m EBIT effect yoy.
Temporarily higher IT costs. Current IT projects should have also led to
temporarily higher OPEX, which we estimate in the ballpark of EUR 3m, further
burdening Q2 EBIT. Moreover, the timing seemed unfavorable, as they have
been recognized in MLP's seasonally weakest quarter, in our view.
The sum of all effects described above fully explain why the Q2 EBIT came in
at EUR 5m (vs EUR 11.7m in Q2Ž24). Apart from the higher IT costs, we had
already anticipated the effects, in our Q2 EBIT estimates of EUR 7-8m.
However, the fact that MLP simultaneously confirmed the guidance (EBIT: EUR
100-110m), should also support our view, that this ad-hoc should not be a
concern. Consequently, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT
of EUR 13.00, based on FCFY and SOTP.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=3002730470e4d02db245626fbd5cd723
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The EQS Distribution Services include Regulatory Announcements,
Financial/Corporate News and Press Releases.
Archive at www.eqs-news.com
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2178100 01.08.2025 CET/CEST
°
