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Original-Research: Nabaltec AG - from NuWays AG
06.03.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Nabaltec AG
Company Name: Nabaltec AG
ISIN: DE000A0KPPR7
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 16
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Q4p weak, FY26 guidance mixed; chg. est.
Nabaltec published preliminary FY25 figures with a soft end to the year,
below our estimates. At the same time, management released a FY26 guidance.
While mid single-digit sales growth is expected, the margin guidance came in
disappointing, reflecting several potential headwinds. In detail:
Q4 burdened by weak Dec. business. Sales in the fourth quarter stood at EUR
41.9m, down 7.7% yoy (eNuW old: EUR 44.4m) as the company suffered from
short-term order cancellations and postponements, particularly visible
within the Functional Fillers segment (-10% yoy vs -0.4% at 9M) and a weak
last month of the year. FY25p sales decreased by 3.2% yoy to EUR 197m with
Functional Fillers -3% (gap filler strong demand, aluminium hydroxide
flat-ish with lower sales prices and weak boehmites sales) and Specialty
Alumina -6%.
As a result of the weak demand in Q4, EBIT stood at a mere EUR 1.2m (2.9%
margin) vs EUR 5.5m in the previous year. With this, the FY margin decreased
by 3.1pp yoy to 7.7%; absolute EBIT of EUR 15.2m (eNuW old: EUR 15.9m). Overall,
slight price pressure, higher labour and energy prices weighed on margins
throughout the year but especially in Q4 due to the lower fix cost coverage.
FY26 guidance mixed. Management expects to grow the company's top-line by
4-6% (eNuW old: 5.6%), anticipating higher sales volumes for ATH (higher
demand across key end markets) but also the gap filler (eNuW: Functional
Fillers +6%). For the latter, Nabaltec is in the midst of production
capacity expansion to accommodate demand for the coming years. We model
largely flat sales for Specialty Alumina (high refractory exposure) as
slightly higher volumes compensate for lower sales prices.
Yet, the EBIT margin guidance of 5-7% came in clearly below our old 8.4%
estimate as the company is factoring in margins of safety stemming from the
Iran war (impacting energy prices) but also uncertainties from the scheduled
maintenance at the waste incineration plant next to its site in Germany (key
supplier of production relevant steam). Longer disruptions would require NTG
to produce their own steam using LNG, which currently experiencing
significant price increases. Excluding those margins of safety, the margin
guidance should have been largely in line with our old estimates, in our
view. Most importantly, we regard those as one-off topics (2027e EBIT margin
to improve to 8%, eNuW).
While short-term newsflow will most likely not support a re-rating of the
shares, the valuation continues to appear cheap (shares clearly below book
value), especially when considering the return to positive FCF generation
following the completion of the current capex program by next year. Adj.
FCFY of 16% (FY26) already underpins this. We hence confirm our BUY rating
with a slightly reduced EUR 16 PT (old: EUR 18) as we reduce estimates but at
the same time move from a blended FY25/26e FCFY approach to FY26e FCFY.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=64c4a3317900698208a8315aa3736053
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2286874 06.03.2026 CET/CEST
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