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Original-Research: OHB SE - from NuWays AG
27.01.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to OHB SE
Company Name: OHB SE
ISIN: DE0005936124
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 260
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Simon Keller
Opportunity: Starlink-like project for the Bundeswehr, chg.
OHB's CMD last week already signalled a turning point, highlighting military
space as a key demand driver and a stronger order intake trajectory (also
see our last update). Media reports now add a material upside option,
confirmed by the company: OHB and Rheinmetall are in talks about a joint bid
for SATCOMBw "Stufe 4", a secure, military-grade LEO constellation akin to
SpaceX's Starlink, tailored to the Bundeswehr. Reported parameters include
>100 satellites, deployment by 2029 and a cited contract value of EUR 8-10bn.
The strategic rationale is straightforward: this is a two-domain programme
to our understanding. It is not "just satellites", but the combination of
(i) space hardware and constellation build-out and (ii) ground-based system
integration (secure connectivity across soldiers, vehicles and naval
assets). Consequently, pairing a Germany-headquartered satellite prime with
Germany's largest listed defence integrator looks like a rational blueprint
with credible win chances, in our view. While Airbus is the incumbent for
the predecessor system, its set-up is pan-European with a meaningful
footprint outside Germany, which could be a relative disadvantage in a
sovereignty-driven programme.
Importantly, this potential project should not be viewed as a one-off
development project. Beyond build-out, the constellation requires continuous
operations, upgrades and regular satellite replenishment. In fact, for
SpaceX's Starlink, satellite lifetimes are cited at c. 5 years, implying a
structural replacement cycle once deployed.
As an end-to-end integrator and in cooperation with Rheinmetall, OHB could
capture a meaningfully higher share of Germany's new space defence
investments than our prior c. 20% assumption. A Rheinmetall analogy is
instructive: as the system integrator in ground defence, it has captured
almost 50% of Germany's EUR 100bn special fund (eNuW). There is a credible
path for OHB to play a similar integrator role in military space, supporting
higher cumulative order intake assumptions for 2026-30e (eNuW: now c.EUR 27bn
in total) and faster growth from 2027e onwards.
At the same time, OHB's valuation still appears compelling versus listed
space peers, with OHB trading at 3x sales 2026e vs. c.7x for other listed
space pure-plays.
News flow should remain supportive, with big-ticket orders likely, Rocket
Factory Augsburg (at-equity at OHB) targeting a maiden launch in 2026, and
increasing global investor attention on "space". Profits should keep up with
news: we forecast a 30% EPS CAGR into 2030e.
BUY, new PT EUR 260 (old: EUR 202), based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=41d7fad09a4f5efa18466f9a98ed1787
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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