Original-Research: Rubean AG - from NuWays AG

Classification of NuWays AG to Rubean AG

Company Name: Rubean AG

ISIN: DE0005120802

Reason for the research: Update

Recommendation: BUY

from: 12.03.2024

Target price: 9.00

Target price on sight of: 12 Monaten

Last rating change:

Analyst: Frederik Jarchow

Conservative FY24 guidance, but ambitious mid-term vision

Topic: Yesterday, Rubean announced a rather conservative topline guidance

for FY24 as well as an ambitious mid-term vision with regards to sales,

EBIT and app user. In detail:

Sales to more than double in FY24. Rubean is expecting to grow its sales by

135% at mid-point to EUR 2.2-2.5m in FY24. On the back of the recently

announced cooperations paired further likely customer wins, we consider

this guidance as rather conservative, still anticipating EUR 3.0m sales

(eNuW). As it is difficult to precisely forecast the exponential growth

trajectory, management seems to play it safe.

40+% EBIT margin by FY27. For FY27, Rubean is aiming for EUR 10+m in sales,

implying a 78% CAGR 2023-27e, which is even above our estimates of EUR 9.0m.

As we see Rubean at the forefront of the rapidly growing market for mobile

payment acceptance systems that is just at the beginning, the vision looks

reasonable. Thanks to scale effects of the highly scalable business model,

management is guiding for 40+% EBIT margin in FY27, which is in line with

our estimates (eNuW: 41%).

1m app user until 2025. Further, management is expecting 1m app user until

2025 after having reported 25k in FY23. While we think that this figure is

a bit too ambitious (eNuW: 350k, only reflecting the user potential of

existing contracts), it is not completely out of reach, as a single major

contract could completely change the picture.

Following the recent series of important strategic partnerships within a

short period of time (i.e. Global Payments, Correos, emerchantpay), Rubean

is showing once again very clearly that its leading softPOS product is

ready and that the roll-out is in full swing. Furthermore, many of the

initial pilot projects of earlier won customers went into regular

operations, generating revenues. Among these customers are national postal

services such as GLS in Spain, DPD, Express One or Dodo in Eastern Europe

but also large banks such as BBVA in Spain and Global Payments Europe. In

our view, more positive newsflow from further new partnerships within FY24

that should further ramp-up sales and EBIT going forward, is likely,

helping to beat the guidance.

BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 9.00, based on our DCF.

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