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Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB - from NuWays AG
31.03.2025 / 09:06 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB
Company Name: Scandinavian Astor Group AB
ISIN: SE0019175274
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 31.03.2025
Target price: SEK 39.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Faster growth as Sweden ramps up defence spending; PT up
Topic: Last Friday, we hosted an investor call with CFO Billström who gave
detailed insights into the new mid-term targets and the short-term M&A
pipeline. Further, Sweden aims to significantly ramp up defence spending to
3.5% of GDP by 2030. In detail:
New mid-term targets to be mainly stemmed from organic growth. Contrary to
our previous assumption, 2/3 of the new mid-term targets announced last week
(SEK 2.5bn sales with more than 15% EBITDA margin by FY'28e) should stem
from an organic sales CAGR of 20% (incl. the full acquisition of the SEK
500m sales of the short-term M&A pipeline). The scenario of a 30% organic
sales CAGR (vs. 44% yoy organic growth in FY'24) would imply 90% of the
mid-term target to stem from organic growth alone, meaning that only little
M&A (in '26, '27 and '28) would be necessary to achieve the target.
More M&A expected shortly: Following the resolved SEK 150m capital increase,
Astor looks at a wellfilled and defence heavy M&A pipeline. Moreover, Astor
has moved Airsafe into a new segment called Astor Protect effective 1st
April '25 and has made place for a fourth, so far unknown segment "Astor X".
For both new segments, we expect new additions soon.
Sweden ramps up defence spending even more. Also last week, Swedish PM Ulf
Kristersson announced that the country will provisionally aim to increase
defence spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2030. This is a much bigger and faster
ramp-up than previously communicated (2.6% in FY'30). According to our
calculation, this implies the defence spending FY'2430 CAGR to almost double
from 7% to 12%.
Organic growth estimate raised: Our old FY'28e sales estimate stood at SEK
586m (not including the short-term M&A pipeline) and was based on an organic
sales CAGR of 17% (25e-28e). Against the backdrop of the defence spending
hike as well as the company's strong defence exposure, our old estimate
seems too conservative. Therefore, we increase our organic growth assumption
to an organic sales CAGR of 20% (25e-28e), but also increase our OPEX and
CAPEX assumption, which will become necessary to foster that growth.
Therefore we increase our DCF-based PT to SEK 39.00 (old: SEK 30.00) and
reiterate our BUY recommendation.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32088.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2108676 31.03.2025 CET/CEST
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