Scandinavian Astor Group AB (von NuWays AG): BUY 22.10.2026, 09:00 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: Scandinavian Astor Group AB - from NuWays AG



22.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Scandinavian Astor Group AB



     Company Name:                Scandinavian Astor Group AB
     ISIN:                        SE0019175274



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                SEK 27
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Simon Keller



Less sail, same course, chg.



Astor's growth potential remains attractive, although order timing warrants
a more cautious earnings outlook. We cut estimates and our PT to reflect
sustained order intake weakness and delivery risks, while retaining BUY. Q3
should bring sequential margin recovery, with Industry, Ammunity and NSG
supporting growth beyond near-term procurement delays.



Underlying demand is seen to support stronger order intake ahead. Q2 order
intake of SEK 81m implied a book-to-bill of just 0.5x. Quarterly intake can
be lumpy in defence, with larger individual contracts and lengthy government
procurement processes affecting award timing. The SEK 610m June backlog
provides substantial coverage, with SEK 595m scheduled for delivery in 2026,
although Q2's slippages highlight the risk of further postponements. While
September's SEK 35m Protect order and October's SEK 33m Marstrom award are
encouraging, the announced wins have yet to establish a sustained recovery
(eNuW). Nevertheless, strong backlogs at Industry's prime contractor
customers should eventually feed through into supplier orders as production
ramps up (eNuW). In Q2, Astor also highlighted high quotation activity, with
ongoing customer discussions supporting further capacity investment. These
signals support our expectation that order intake will regain momentum in Q4.
Still, our revised forecasts allow more time for contract awards and
deliveries to materialise (eNuW).



Three pillars support the growth case. The Industry segment provides a solid
manufacturing base, with its stronger defence mix supporting EBITDA margins
of >20% (eNuW). Ammunity's capacity expansion offers substantial organic
upside (capacity to increase by up to 6x vs 2025 level), with Latvian
government procurement the key variable in converting capacity into sales,
in our view (see p.2). NSG's FY27 growth should benefit from ammunition
stockpiling, tighter infrastructure-protection requirements and rising
civil-protection budgets, driving demand for its secure storage, hardened
data centres and shelters (eNuW).



Q3 should bring sequential margin recovery. Sales look set to arrive at SEK
240m (+205% yoy), including SEK 154m from acquisitions (eNuW). Industry
should contribute c. SEK 50m, assuming the H1 sales pace of c. SEK 25m per
month and allowing for a month of summer holidays. Protect should generate
c. SEK 190m, supported by NSG's first full quarter of consolidation and c.
SEK 5m of deliveries shifted from Q2 (eNuW). EBITDA is set to rise 87% yoy
to SEK 29.8m (eNuW), implying a 12.4% margin versus Q2's underlying 6.2%.
The 6.2pp sequential recovery should benefit from delayed deliveries, a more
normal product mix and NSG's larger contribution. It also comes without the
previous at-equity margin support: NSG now contributes both sales and
earnings through full consolidation.



Fresh capital to support further acquisitions. September's SEK 114m gross
equity raise increases financial flexibility. Astor is evaluating targets
with combined sales above SEK 850m and EBITDA above SEK 125m. The pipeline
offers further growth potential beyond the existing portfolio, subject to
transactions being agreed and completed.



Action: We lower sales estimates by on avg. 12% for 2026-28e. Lower
fixed-cost absorption, dilution from the capital increase and a
corresponding model overhaul reduce EPS by on avg. 37% over the same period.
We reiterate BUY with a new PT of SEK 27 (old: SEK 46), based on a blend of
DCF and peer group valuation. - continued -



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Contact for questions:
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Email: research@nuways-ag.com
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2420048 22.10.2026 CET/CEST