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Original-Research: Semperit AG Holding - from NuWays AG
05.11.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Semperit AG Holding
Company Name: Semperit AG Holding
ISIN: AT0000785555
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 05.11.2025
Target price: EUR 18.20
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Semperit is set to deliver solid Q3 2025 results on 12th of November. Here
is what to expect:
Group sales are seen to come in at EUR 170m (eNuW) implying an increase of
5.6% yoy, based on a strengthened order book at the end of H1 and further
improvements across most end markets. At the same time, group EBITDA should
grow 26% yoy, reaching EUR 20.8m. The implied 1.9pp margin increase (12.2% vs.
10.3%) looks set to be driven by continued operational improvements from
cost saving efforts, favorable mix effects, but also a soft comparable base.
For the SIA segment (containing hoses and profiles), we expect 7.2% yoy
growth, reaching EUR 67.7m in revenue. To recap, in Q3 2024 the segment
encountered a notable demand softness, accompanied by an unfavorable product
mix shift. These developments were followed by customer destocking
activities, which should have ended in Q2. The expected demand recovery for
Q3 is likely to be supported by a slow recovery of the construction end
market in Europe and moderate Emerging Asia construction growth. During the
last 12 months, the company took decisive action to lower costs, to
operationally improve the segment and to price its products defensively, due
to which EBITDA-margin looks set to increase by 2pp yoy to 19.5% (eNuW).
Revenues from the SEA segment (containing forms, belting and LSR) should
increase by 4.6% yoy to EUR 102m against a weak comparable base of Q3 2024,
which had been implicated by mixed demand drivers for business units form
and belting and supported by the addition of the LSR unit. As project delays
from Q1 2025 should be ending, and order activity already improved in Q2,
moderate growth appears likely for Q3 against a backdrop of low
manufacturing and mining activity growth in end markets. The segments
EBITDA-margin is expected to increase by 1.9pp yoy to 11.1% (eNuW), partly
due to segment top-line growth and cost cutting measures.
Expectations for the remainder of the year. Despite the businesses'
seasonality (typically weaker Q1 and Q4), we expect further sequential and
yoy improvements during the last quarter of the year thanks to further
slightly improving demand patterns.
FY25 guidance in reach. With the expected 9M performance (eNuW EUR 491m sales
and EUR 51.5m EBITDA), gradual end market improvements and cost saving
efforts, the company should be on track to meet its guidance (EUR 65-85m
operating EBITDA). However, as reflected by our estimate, we expect rather
the mid-point as a sensible target (eNuW EUR 73.7m). Reaching the upper end
would require a Q4 EBITDA-margin of 19.5%, which seems too ambitious, in our
view.
Semperit appears well-positioned, partially offsetting end-market weakness
via broad market/application diversification and high product quality. In
addition to its ERP system consolidation, the company plans ongoing
cost-savings, which should unlock incremental margin expansion once demand
accelerates. For example, this could materially impact the P&L once Germany
deploys already-committed special infrastructure funds.
BUY with an unchanged EUR 18.2 PT, based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=a0743c63d450312b171c23430711e8be
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2223948 05.11.2025 CET/CEST
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