THE NAGA GROUP AG (von NuWays AG): BUY 06.08.2026, 09:00 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: THE NAGA GROUP AG - from NuWays AG



06.08.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to THE NAGA GROUP AG



     Company Name:                THE NAGA GROUP AG
     ISIN:                        DE000A41YCM0



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 7.3
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Simon Keller



Quality over count, chg.



NAGA's preliminary H1 results mark the first profitable half in the group's
history. Sales came in at EUR 27.7m (-14% yoy), while EBITDA rose 47% yoy
(fx-adj. +64% yoy) to EUR 4.4m and net profit turned positive at EUR 0.9m,
against a EUR 2.6m loss in H1 25. The EBITDA margin improved 6.6pp yoy to
15.9% vs. just 2.3% in H2 25, reflecting a step-change in the cost base.



Marketing spend was deliberately cut by 25% yoy to EUR 11.2m, which took
funded clients down 35% to c. 10k. The clients NAGA does acquire, however,
are worth considerably more. Lifetime value rose 32% to EUR 2,757, volume per
trade more than doubled to EUR 33.5k and the withdrawal rate fell from 43% to
28%. Net deposits therefore held level yoy despite the much smaller intake,
and grew 39% qoq in Q2. Notably, CPA was flat at EUR 1,117, so the gain in
client value did not cost more.



While marketing reductions account for most of the 6.6pp margin expansion
(c. 6pp), the rest of the cost base moved in the same direction. Employee,
technology and operating expenses declined 20% combined, adding 2.3pp,
partly related to AI-supported processes across onboarding, support,
reporting and content. Payment processing charges dropped 30% to 6.0% of
sales (H1 25: 7.3%) following the Q4 2025 optimisations, worth another
1.3pp. The only offset was a 72% rise in execution and liquidity costs
(-3.0pp impact), which management attributes to deliberate risk-management
decisions rather than weaker execution.



The revenue mix has also become less dependent on third parties. Internal
channels, i.e. digital marketing, influencers and organic, grew from 36% to
53% of sales. Regionally, Europe (34%), the GCC (33%) and Latin America
(29%) now contribute roughly a third each, with GCC concentration down from
41%. Separately, the MiCA transitional regime expired on 1 July, leaving
providers without authorisation (most notably Binance) unable to serve EU
clients. NAGA, licensed since June, is on the right side of that line.



NAGA confirmed the FY26 guidance of EUR 68-75m sales and EUR 10-15m EBITDA. The
deposit and withdrawal trends described above should help from here, as both
lead revenue. Consequently, NAGA enters H2 with a smaller yet better funded
and stickier client base, which should support activity from Q3 without
requiring a volatility tailwind. Still, in our view, the sales range looks
ambitious on the H1 run rate without market volatility increases, requiring
34% yoy growth for the lower end of the guidance range in H2. As a result we
trim FY26e sales to EUR 60m (old: EUR 64.4m), implying a growth improvement to
only 8% yoy. At the same time, we leave EBITDA unchanged at EUR 9.0m, which
strikes us as well underpinned: it needs only EUR 4.6m in H2 (vs. EUR 4.4m
delivered in H1).



With financial reports being delivered on time, transparency having improved
with quarterly updates and now two quarters with positive net profits in the
books, the predictability and quality of the story have improved noticeably.



BUY with an unchanged PT of EUR 7.30, based on DCF.





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https://www.nuways-ag.com/research



Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2378336 06.08.2026 CET/CEST