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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG
23.10.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE
Company Name: tonies SE
ISIN: LU2333563281
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 23.10.2025
Target price: EUR 11.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch, Antonio Perez
Q3 Preview: Toniebox 2 to add momentum
On November 13th, tonies will release its Q3 figures (sales and its mix),
for which we expect continuously dynamic topline growth across all
categories and regions. Here is what to expect:
Upbeat adoption should drive Q3 momentum. Following a sluggish H1 sales of
Tonieboxes due to retailersŽ restraint in orders in anticipation of the
Toniebox 2 (TB2), we should see a clear demand pickup in Q3 with Toniebox
sales up 41% yoy to EUR 35m (eNuW). As sales of Tonieboxes are usually
accompanied by Tonies figurines sales, we also expect strong growth for the
category; +27% yoy to EUR 85m.
Regionally, this should trigger a return to growth in the DACH region (Q1:
-3% yoy, Q2: 0% yoy) as we estimate Q3 sales of EUR 51m (+20% yoy). While Rest
of the World is expected to keep its strong momentum (eNuW: EUR28m, +75% yoy)
after recent country expansions into UK, France and ANZ, the North America
segment should follow the same path, yet it is additionally driven by recent
price increases since May on the most relevant Tonies figurines to offset
the tariff impact. North America sales are hence seen to rise to EUR 45m
(after FX) with 22% yoy growth. Overall, group sales should reach EUR 124m, up
30% yoy.
Exposure to tariffs to be minimal. toniesŽ business model has features that
mitigate exposure to tariffs. First, its multi-sourcing approach allowed to
shift production to Vietnam in early 2025, with installed capacity of >1.8m
Tonieboxes, which more than covers all of US demand (eNuW: c. 1m units for
FY'25e) and helps to reduce dependence on China amid tensions with the US.
Second, tonies has shown pricing power visible in a growing ASP of its
Tonies figurines, and thus we expect a similar increase in Q3. Thus, effects
of tariffs on gross margins should be minor, due to the companyŽs ability to
pass on tariffs to customers.
TB2 should create the basis for growth. Given a doubling of the age range,
combined with strong additional functionalities (e.g. interactive audio
playing a.k.a Tonieplay), and promising partnerships such as Monopoly with
Hasbro (recently announced), the TB2 serves as an ideal growth driver for
the future, with potential to increase revenue through higher-priced Tonies
(Tonieplay games) and increases in Accessories sales (e.g. joysticks).
Guidance well in reach. In the context of a strong Q3 ahead, the guidance of
EUR 600m group sales (before FX), which includes EUR273m sales from North
America (before FX) and an adj. EBITDA margin of 6.5-8.5%, looks well
achievable, in line with our estimates. If tonies manages to deliver a
continuously strong TB2 phase, coupled with a strong Black Friday
performance on November 28th, a potential guidance beat could be in the
cards.
Overall, we maintain our strong conviction on the investment case due to
high revenue growth and margin expansion, and therefore reiterate our BUY
rating and keep our PT unchanged at EUR 11.00 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=f36b73b86fb4c358ff917f4e5a7f2bc2
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2217316 23.10.2025 CET/CEST
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