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Original-Research: tonies SE - from NuWays AG
14.11.2025 / 10:25 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE
Company Name: tonies SE
ISIN: LU2333563281
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 14.11.2025
Target price: EUR 11.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Strong TB2 traction and order timing drive strong Q3 results
Yesterday, tonies released a very strong Q3 trading statement, beating our
regional and categorytopline estimates. In detail:
Group sales grew by 52% yoy to EUR 145m (eNuW: EUR 124m). Following the
atypical, modest growthvisible in Q2 (+16% yoy vs. 33% in FY24 and 24% in Q1
'25), the company has shown a strongmomentum recovery. Although we expected
this recovery (eNuW: 30% yoy growth in Q3), the extent came as a positive
surprise.
TB2 launch carried strong phase-in effects. In September, tonies launched
the first iteration of itscore product, called the Toniebox 2 (TB2). Before
that, Q2 saw a 12% yoy decline in sales fromTonieboxes, as retailers stopped
ordering the TB1 and waited until Q3 to fill inventories withthe new TB2. At
that time, the decline surprised the market, as the TB2 launch was
communicatedonly after Q2 results. This led to strong phase-in effects and
Toniebox sales increased by astaggering 59% yoy to EUR 40m (eNuW: EUR 35m).
Moreover, management also highlighted that asubstantial part of the strong
performance stems from upgrades, where existing TB1 ownerspurchased the new
TB2. Mind you, the launch of TB2 (for end customers) started on Sept. 15,
2025in DACH, whereas US and ROW roll-out began on 5th October and thus in
Q4.
Revenue growth in DACH climbed back to old levels, with sales growing by 45%
yoy to EUR 61m (eNuW: EUR 54m), mostly due to the phase-in effects mentioned
above. North America also experienced a strong sales growth of 47% yoy to EUR
54m (eNuW: EUR 45m), followed by RoW, which delivered a remarkable 83% yoy
growth to EUR 30m (eNuW: EUR 28m).
Figurines grew driven by TB2 and new launches. Given that Tonies figurines
are usually bought inparallel to a Toniebox purchase, Tonies figurines sales
surged 48% yoy to EUR 99m (eNuW: EUR 85m),also carried by robust uptake of
recent releases, including My First Tonies,Tonieplay, and the US best-seller
Ms. Rachel Tonie. Mind you, Tonies figurines make up ~70% of sales and
carrystructurally higher margins than the boxes.
tonies set to reach guidance if a strong Q4 follows. Management expects
another record quarterin Q4, which typically makes up ~50% of FY revenues.
Based on our Q4 estimate of EUR 276m (+16%yoy), we expect FY Ž25 sales of EUR
598m, slightly below the "more than EUR 600m sales" guidance target. Firstly,
we factor in some EUR/USD FX-headwinds (guidance is in constant currency)
andsecondly expect some demand to have pre-shifted into Q3, which would
usually materialize in Q4during the holiday season. Nevertheless, we regard
the TB2 as a very potent product and wouldnot rule out an estimate beat on
the upcoming Christmas season.
Overall, we maintain our strong conviction on the investment case, supported
by the high revenue potential stemming from the new product family, and the
proven profitability of toniesŽ businessmodel, which should increase as the
company scales internationally. Therefore, we reiterate our BUYrating, and
keep our PT unchanged at EUR 11.00, based on DCF
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=0acb484c506296104221030080c12ff3
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
++++++++++
Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
++++++++++
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2230116 14.11.2025 CET/CEST
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