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Original-Research: Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungs AG - from East Value
Research GmbH
06.06.2025 / 11:24 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The
result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an
invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.
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Classification of East Value Research GmbH to Warimpex Finanz- und
Beteiligungs AG
Company Name: Warimpex Finanz- und Beteiligungs AG
ISIN: AT0000827209
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 1.12
Target price on sight of: 12-months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Adrian Kowollik
After reporting disappointing full-year 2024 results compared to our
estimates from early April, Warimpex (WXF) delivered a solid set of numbers
for Q1/25. On a comparable basis - excluding the Russian assets sold in
Q4/24 - results were above the previous year across all levels. Q1/25
revenues benefited from the Mogilska 35 office building in Cracow, which is
now fully occupied (31/12/2024: 71%). On the other hand, the 20.3% decline
in revenues from the Hotel segment was, in our view, due to a generally weak
hotel market in Germany and the cessation of payments from the city of
Darmstadt for lodging Ukrainian refugees. This reduced the occupancy rate of
WXF's greet hotel to 44%, down from 57% in the previous year. For Q2-Q4, we
expect the trends observed in Q1/25 to continue. Additionally, management
anticipates receiving the building permit for its Mogilska 31 residential
project in Q3/25E, with construction expected to begin shortly thereafter.
Warimpex estimates the project's total cost at c. EUR 30m, and we expect
completion about 1.5 years after construction starts. Based on lower
estimates and an updated peer-group-based FV (EUR 0.73 vs. EUR 0.68
previously), our valuation model yields a new 12-month PT (50% NNNAV, 50%
peer group) of EUR 1.12 (prev. EUR 1.14). While we expect WXF to repay EUR
1.8m of a bond this year, bonds worth EUR 8.7m will be refinanced through a
long-term, albeit more expensive, loan, which will likely increase WXF's
interest expenses going forward.
In Q1/25, Warimpex generated revenues of EUR 5.4m (+9.1% y-o-y), an EBITDA
of EUR 430k (+112.5%) and a net income (excl. one-offs) of EUR -1.3m (EUR
-2.6m). Thereof, Investment properties contributed EUR 3.5m (+17.1% y-o-y,
EBITDA margin of 44.6% vs. 43% in Q1/24), the Hotels segment EUR 1.2m
(-20.3%, 3.3% vs. 12.3%) and Development & Services EUR 740k (+48.2%,
-155.3% vs. -249.2%). Flat direct expenses led to a higher gross margin
y-o-y (47% vs. 42.5% in Q1/24). Net income was positively affected by a
higher net financial result and a tax refund of EUR 210k. As of 31/03/2025,
net gearing equalled 192.5% (31/12/2024: 187%) and equity ratio 31.1%
(31.8%). Poland now accounts for >60% of WXF's total revenues and 73% of its
Gross Asset Value.
Based on our discussions with WXF's management, we expect the trends
observed in Q1/25 to continue and have therefore reduced our 2025E revenue
and EBITDA estimates by 27.1%-75.1%. While the weak economic environment is
weighing on the German hotel business, Polish office rentals are expected to
benefit from the country's projected GDP growth of 3.7% this year.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/32818.pdf
For additional information visit our website: https://eastvalueresearch.com/
Contact for questions:
Adrian Kowollik
Tel. : +49 30 20609082
E-Mail: ak@eastvalueresearch.com
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2152076 06.06.2025 CET/CEST
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