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Original-Research: ZEAL Network SE - from NuWays AG
16.12.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to ZEAL Network SE
Company Name: ZEAL Network SE
ISIN: DE000ZEAL241
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 16.12.2025
Target price: EUR 67.00
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
No Q4 peak jackpot, expect EBITDA guidance beat
* Jackpot situation does not allow for a Q4 peak jackpot.
* Q4 sales estimate slightly lowered, but marketing expense even more
* EBITDA guidance beat now likely
Jackpot situation does not allow for a Q4 peak jackpot. With the EJ
currently at EUR 22m (peak: EUR 120m, c. 10 more draws needed) and the Lotto
6/49 at EUR 31m (peak: EUR 50m, c. 5-8 more draws needed), neither the EJ nor
Lotto 6/49 are able to reach a peak jackpot this year. Therefore, we adjust
our Q4 estimates accordingly:
Q4 sales estimate slightly lowered. Peak jackpots are the key driver of
incremental user activity at ZEAL, which can be observed in higher number of
monthly active users (MAUs). During Q3'25 (2x peak jackpot), the MAUs jumped
26% yoy to 1.69m (vs. 1.3m in Q3'24 with 0x peak jackpots). Now, with 0x
peak jackpots in Q4'25e, we expect a sequential decline in user activity to
1.505m MAUs (implied average of 1.56m for FY'25e). Previously, we had
expected a slightly higher activity rate of ZEAL's customer base (eNuW old:
1.565m), which is why we lower our Q4 sales estimate to EUR 53m (eNuW old: EUR
55m) which nonetheless still implies a guidance reach at the top-end at EUR
215m (eNuW).
Much less Q4 marketing spending now expected. With no peak jackpots in Q4,
we also expect ZEAL to adjust Q4 marketing spending accordingly by 5m to EUR
15m (eNuW old: EUR 20m) which should yield a 33.5% Q4 EBITDA margin, in line
with 9M of 33.3%.
Against this backdrop, an EBITDA guidance beat seems likely now. With a Q4
EBITDA estimate of EUR 18m, we imply a FY'25e EBITDA of EUR 72m (eNuW old: EUR
68m), which is 6% above the upper guidance end.
No more margin downside, only upside from jackpots. In the past, there was
always a trade-off between profitability and growth, especially during peak
jackpot phases. Now, with MAUs well above the 1.5m mark, ZEAL has reached
critical mass and enough operating leverage, that the higher sales from the
strong user activity overcompensate any additional marketing spending.
Effectively, strong jackpot phases do not weigh on margins anymore, but
actually increase profitability. This was already observed in the thus far
unmachted Q4'24, where user activity skyrocketed and the EBITDA margin
jumped to 40% (vs. c. 30% on average per quarter), despite a 275% yoy
increase in marketing spending.
Against this backdrop, we maintain our BUY recommendation with a slightly
higher PT of EUR 67.00 (old EUR 66.00), based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=9d795a2c767e299f11f2359098e75127
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2246200 16.12.2025 CET/CEST
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