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Semperit AG Holding (von NuWays AG): BUY 19.03.2026, 09:01 Uhr von EQS Research Jetzt kommentieren: 0

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Original-Research: Semperit AG Holding - from NuWays AG

19.03.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS Group.
The issuer is solely responsible for the content of this research. The result of this research does not constitute investment advice or an invitation to conclude certain stock exchange transactions.


Classification of NuWays AG to Semperit AG Holding

Company Name: Semperit AG Holding
ISIN: AT0000785555
 
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 21
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr

FY25 out: Op. tide is turning, B&C offer too low; PT UP

The tide is turning at Semperit: two strong quarters confirm the recovery, which is seen to carry on throughout FY26, as reflected by the EBITDA guidance of € 95m; B&C's € 15 bid undervalues it.

Q4 revenue came in at € 179m (+5.3% yoy) in line with expectations (eNuW: € 179.6m), driven by sequential demand improvements following a weak Q1 and geopolitical uncertainty in Q2 resulting in project and demand delays. Q4 EBITDA rose 30.7% yoy to € 27.4m (eNuW: € 21.7m), with a favorable development in EBITDA margin yoy from 12.4% to 15.3%. This highlights the positive impact of previously implemented cost measures in combination with higher capacity utilization.

Segment performance underscores the breadth of recovery. SIA delivered Q4 EBITDA of € 15.1m (margin: 21.7%, +6.2pp yoy), driven by higher volume intake per existing customer — a quality signal, not just a volume story. SEA added € 16.2m in Q4 EBITDA (margin: 14.8%, +2.6pp yoy), with stronger activity across belting, LSR and forms. Both segments beat our estimates at the EBITDA level, with aggregate Q4 EBITDA of € 27.4m versus our € 21.7m estimate, a c. 26% beat.

With this, FY 25 revenue stood at € 662.4m and op. EBITDA came in at € 79.5, slightly beating the guidance of € 78m op. EBITDA. Of the ongoing cost cutting program (total € 10m annual savings), € 6m were already realized in FY25. ERP-related costs came in at € 4.1m, below our expectation of € 5m (eNuW). Lower CAPEX and w/c partially offset the reduced net income, allowing for € 37m FCF, down 19% yoy.

FY 26 guidance of € 95m op. EBITDA looks achievable, confirms turnaround. The building blocks seem credible: full € 10m annualized cost savings flowing through, 7.2% top-line growth (eNuW) supported by improving demand and pricing, and a favorable order book trajectory in both segments. On raw materials, European butadiene is up 5.6% in March and synthetic rubber approximately 22%, driven by Middle East supply disruptions. Yet, near-term impact is buffered by existing inventories. Semperit has historically passed on raw material cost inflation to customers; if elevated prices persist, this mechanism should limit margin damage. Our estimates assume raw material cost growth does not exceed ~10% annualized.

B&C undemanding. B&C Holding Österreich GmbH, already the majority shareholder with 57.3%, has announced a public takeover offer at € 15 per share a 25% premium to the pre-announcement price. We acknowledge the premium, but reject the notion that it reflects fair value. In our view, the company is ahead of a multi-year operational improvement cycle with neither the full cost savings benefit nor the revenue recovery yet reflected in trailing earnings. At € 15, the offer implies roughly 5.4x EV/EBITDA on our FY26e (BV/share stands at ~ € 20).

We raise our PT to € 21 (prev. € 18.5), based on DCF and reiterate BUY. The DCF upgrade reflects higher near-term EBITDA estimates, the full flow-through of cost savings and continued balance sheet improvement. The operational inflection is underway with the FY26 setup being the strongest in three years.

You can download the research here: semperit-ag-holding-2026-03-19-update-en-58367
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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2294130  19.03.2026 CET/CEST

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