SOFTBANK WKN: 891624 ISIN: JP3436100006 Kürzel: 0R15 Forum: Aktien Thema: Hauptdiskussion

As AI angst hits markets, this stock — not Nvidia — is the canary in the coal mine   SoftBank stock broke before the market during the dot-com bust, and Citi warns that might be the case this time as well   By Jamie Chisholm   There's a stock whose health is an indicator of dangers ahead. It’s usually difficult to pinpoint a specific factor that’s caused a stock market sell-off. The current bout of investor angst is no different: a less dovish Federal Reserve, concerns about private credit and wariness about rich valuations, have all been cited as catalysts.   But given that it’s chunky falls for Big Tech stocks that’s doing most damage to equity benchmarks, perhaps much of the blame lies with a cooling of AI fervor.   And a team of strategists at Citigroup, led by Dirk Willer, say the source of that negative narrative is OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, that has been central to much of the circular investment in the AI ecosystem.   They ask how a company with revenue they estimate at $12.5 billion — or that OpenAI chief Sam Altman more optimistically puts at $20 billion — can support orders of $1.4 trillion.   OpenAI aims to become profitable only in 2029 or 2030, and until then may burn over $115 billion in cash, according to some estimates. And Citi observes that meanwhile worries are rising that competition in large language models — the latest Google model was released just this week —may cause OpenAI to lose market share.   While OpenAI is private, there is a proxy — Japanese investment firm SoftBank Group 9984 which has an 11% stake in the ChatGPT owner.   The Citi team does some math to get the value of OpenAI out of the SoftBank price — they take the enterprise value of SoftBank and strip out the current values of all its publicly held equities, which is mostly ARM ARM. Citi then takes the historical quarterly snapshots of equity holdings from SoftBank to derive the split between the other private investments and SoftBank Vision Fund 2 (SVF2), as shown in the chart below. This gives an estimated value to SoftBank’s OpenAI stake of $62.4 billion. In early October SoftBank implied that its 11% stake was worth about $55 billion, valuing OpenAI at around $500 billion.   Citi accepts that its calculations provide “a very rough proxy for OpenAI” because SVF2 also includes other private companies, and it also does not take any holding company discount into consideration. Nevertheless, they reckon that “the OpenAI stake is at this stage dominating the other private investments in the eyes of the market.”   Indeed, In the last quarter, performance from OpenAI accounted for greater than 96% of the SVF2’s profit and loss calculation, according to SoftBank. In addition, says Citi, OpenAI is also likely more volatile than many other assets of SoftBank and, therefore, may dominate the change in the value.   The chart below shows Citi’s OpenAI proxy next to the returns of SoftBank. “Our main takeaway is that the price of SoftBank is likely a good proxy for the price of OpenAI, as the two comove,” Citi says.    Citi notes that SoftBank acted as a canary in the coalmine in 2000, when its shares started lower ahead of the wider market. Back then SoftBank was a big investor in the internet sector, and still holds a stake in T-Mobile US TMUS as well as T-Mobile’s majority owner Deutsche Telekom DTE. This time it may be fears about OpenAI that drive the stock.   “It is also important to keep in mind though, that back then the break in Softbank happened after a 1220% return from the previous April, i.e. the rally was meaningfully larger than this time around. Still, we would add SoftBank to the stocks to watch carefully,” says Citi.   The watching wasn’t easy on Friday: SoftBank shares fell 10.9% in Tokyo trade, and have lost 28.4% in the last month.

Freier Fall?

Warum fällt es?

Wegen Alphabet AI

Innerhalb einem Monat halbiert 🙈

Der Aktionär schreibt: 1 zu 4 (?) das ist ein Unterschied 🤔

Der Splitt soll am 31..12.25 stattfinden 4 zu 1. Laut Chat GJP

Jetzt braucht es auch keinen Aktiensplit mehr 🙈

Jahresendrallye

Moin was geht bei softbank ab?

Zum Ende des Jahres

Zeitpunkt hab ich bisher nicht in Erfahrung bringen können, wurde auf jeden Fall bereits kommuniziert.

Wann kommt der Aktiensplit

Aktiensplit 4:1

16,2 MRD USD Gewinn im Quartal kann man Mal machen ✌️