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Original-Research: Cantourage Group SE - from NuWays AG
27.01.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Cantourage Group SE
Company Name: Cantourage Group SE
ISIN: DE000A3DSV01
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 27.01.2025
Target price: EUR 12.50
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
FY24 with explosive growth // new high(t)s in sight; PT Up
Topic: Following the regulatory changes in April, sales growth has been
stellar throughout the remainder of FY24. Thanks to various de-bottlenecking
measures and unbroken demand, Cantourage looks poised for new operational
highs.
Based on preliminary figures, Cantourage ended FY24 with EUR 51.4m sales, a
118% yoy increase, beating the guidance that the company raised to EUR 46-50m
at the beginning of December. The fourth quarter alone accounted for EUR
21.4m, 185% above previous year's level of EUR 7.5 and only slightly less than
to the whole year 2023. With EUR 8.5m sales, December beat the previous
monthly high of EUR 7.5m. The strong sequential increases throughout the year
were carried by successful de-bottlenecking efforts at processing sites and
an increase of supplier depth.
Importantly, with a scaling top-line, we also expect Cantourage to have
reached EBITDA profitability for the first time; eNuW: 7.5% margin. The
expected gross margin of above 37% underpins the margin potential with
growing sales volumes.
What to expect from FY25: In light of the favorable market dynamics, notably
increased processing capacities (>14t annually), the Polish market entry at
the end of last year and the relaunch of its own telemedicine platform,
telecan°, strong growth is out of the question. We currently model a 67% yoy
increase to roughly EUR 86m despite an FY run rate of slightly more than EUR
100m, based on the December sales figure to account for weaker summer months
and a margin of safety. With this, the EBITDA margin is seen to further
increase to 10%, in our view.
Threats from political uncertainties limited. As more conservative parties
are likely to gain power in the upcoming election in Germany (end of Feb.),
which have historically opposed a broader cannabis legalization, we see the
potential of re-regulation on the recreational side, i.e. cannabis clubs and
growing own plants. Importantly, Cantourage is only active in the medical
space, we hence regard the risks to its business model as limited.
Taking into account the strong growth during recent years and the prospects
stemming from growing patient numbers at its 'home-turf' Germany and the
ongoing regional expansion, the current valuation seems undemanding at 6.3x
EV/EBITDA FY25e. BUY with a new EUR 12.50 PT (old: EUR 12) based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31663.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2074779 27.01.2025 CET/CEST
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