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Original-Research: Cantourage Group SE - from NuWays AG
11.03.2025 / 09:11 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Cantourage Group SE
Company Name: Cantourage Group SE
ISIN: DE000A3DSV01
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 11.03.2025
Target price: EUR 12.50
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Q1 on track to hit a new record
Following the record Q4 with EUR 21m sales, Cantourage should be on track to
hit another record high quarter with Q1. During the first two months of the
year, the company generated EUR 14.9m sales, already more than 2x last year's
whole Q1 with EUR 6.2m (regulatory change not until April of last year).
Assuming no supply chain disruptions, Cantourage is seen to reach some EUR 22m
sales in Q1 (eNuW).
This bodes well with our 2025 estimates, which imply 67% yoy sales growth to
EUR 86m (so far no FY25 guidance). While we have factored in some weaker
months during the summer and a margin of safety, Cantourage currently looks
set to be on track to beat our estimates, especially when assuming positive
contributions from an increased supplier depth and successful
de-bottlenecking efforts at processing sites. With its top-line further
improving, scale effects should begin to kick in. Despite ongoing expansion
expenses, the group's EBITDA margin is seen to grow to 10% (eNuW).
Further capacity expansion announced. To be able to cope with the surging
demand across its three core markets, Germany, the UK and Poland, as well as
geographical expansion, Cantourage decided to further expand its processing
capacity. This comes less than 10 months after the last increase to 14t p.a.
(EUR 100m at EUR 7.5 per gram), underpinning the unbroken demand and sales
potential way beyond EUR 100m, in our view. While the company has not
announced any detail, we would expect the additional capacities to mainly
come from third-party processing plants, keeping the business capital light.
Threats from political uncertainties limited. German elections turned out as
expected with Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Social Democratic Party
(SPD) forming the new government. While CDU has historically opposed a
broader cannabis legalization, SPD was a driving force behind the changes
implemented almost one year ago. While we see the potential of re-regulation
on the recreational side, i.e. cannabis clubs and growing own plants, a full
return to the "old" model seems unlikely as it would come with a high degree
of complexity as well as a wave of lawsuits.
Importantly, Cantourage is only active in the medical space, we hence regard
the risks to its business model as limited. Further, as the company has been
increasing its operational footprint outside of its home turf, potential
implications from any regulatory change are rather decreasing going forward.
BUY with an unchanged EUR 12.50 PT based on DCF.
You can download the research here: http://www.more-ir.de/d/31946.pdf
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2098458 11.03.2025 CET/CEST
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