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Original-Research: Flughafen Wien AG - from NuWays AG
03.03.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Flughafen Wien AG
Company Name: Flughafen Wien AG
ISIN: AT00000VIE62
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 57
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Simon Keller
Iran crisis a short-term drag; Q4'25 as expected
A mixed set of developments shapes the near-term picture for Flughafen Wien.
The Iran conflict adds uncertainty around passenger growth in 2026, although
the direct impact appears manageable at this stage. Preliminary Q4 figures
came in broadly in line with expectations (see p.2) and do not indicate a
change in underlying trends. Finally, the dividend proposal and outlook are
more conservative than we had expected, reflecting a cautious capital
allocation stance.
The current Middle East airspace disruptions are a near-term headwind. For
Vienna, the region is expected to account for roughly 6% of passenger
movements in FY'26e (Malta: c. 1%). To frame the downside, we run a
conservative sensitivity assuming a full four-week disruption: this would
reduce FY group EBITDA by around 1%, i.e. c. EUR 4m (exclusively eNuW). We
therefore keep estimates unchanged for now. The impact should be cushioned
by partial and phased normalisation at key hubs, capacity redeployment to
other routes, and a limited seasonality impact as it coincides with Ramadan
(ending March 19).
Overall, these near-term uncertainties do not change the company's long-term
ambition of 40m passengers annually at Vienna by 2035 (CAGR: 2.1% 2025-35 or
3.2% 2026-35). Following the expected dip in 2026e, passenger growth is
expected to resume from 2027e, supported by the ongoing expansion programme,
including the Terminal 3 Southern Expansion (opening 2027) and follow-on
infrastructure additions. Group capex is guided at EUR 330m for 2026e, keeping
investment levels structurally elevated. Funding looks manageable given
solid operating cash flow (EUR 333m in 2025) and a strong balance sheet (net
cash: EUR 414m).
The proposed dividend is EUR 1.65 p.shr., implying c. 3% yield, and setting a
more conservative payout baseline than we had assumed (eNuW: EUR 3.00). While
a higher payout would be financially feasible following the cancellation of
the third runway project, a step-up look difficult to justify alongside an
ongoing restructuring programme and political sensitivity around aviation
ticket taxes. Looking ahead, current investment plans are expected to absorb
the net cash position by 2029e (assuming a stable 60-75% dividend payout
ratio), effectively defining the capital return level the company is willing
to commit to.
In sum, Flughafen Wien remains a high-quality infrastructure case on a
secular growth trajectory. Nonetheless, operating momentum is seen to weaken
in 2026, as guided and expected by consensus, with low-cost carriers set to
partially reschedule their limited fleet capacity to lower-tax countries.
Uncertainty from the Middle East conflict might further weigh on sentiment.
Hence, we remain at HOLD, unchanged PT of EUR 57, based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=ef7bdf234a8b6f48f50419fe6c398ad6
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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2284274 03.03.2026 CET/CEST
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