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Original-Research: Global Fashion Group S.A. - from NuWays AG
29.10.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Global Fashion Group S.A.
Company Name: Global Fashion Group S.A.
ISIN: LU2010095458
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
from: 29.10.2025
Target price: EUR 0.80
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
On November 7, GFG will post its Q3 figures, for which we expect muted NMV
and sales, but visible gross margin improvement. In detail:
LATAM and ANZ driving GMV recovery, SEA underperforming. As the companyŽs
efforts to turn around customer decline continue, particularly in LATAM and
ANZ (where customer growth already outpaced churn in Q2 Ž25), we forecast a
less pronounced decline in LTM active customers (eNuW: 7.43m; -1% yoy), and
consequently a decline in orders (eNuW: 3.8m; -4.4% yoy). However, this
should be partially offset by a higher average order value, which is
estimated to grow 2% yoy, despite FX effects. Thus, group NMV should land at
EUR 252m (-1.6% yoy), reflecting a lower decline vs H1. On a regional level,
LATAM should grow by 1% yoy to EUR 71m, driven by higher active customers
(eNuW: 3.5m; +2.9% yoy), but held back by FX headwinds. ANZ should follow
the same path, increasing 2.1% yoy to reach EUR 127m, benefiting from a higher
customer base (eNuW: 1.93m; +1.3% yoy), offsetting some negative FX effects.
Conversely, the business environment remains challenging in the SEA region,
where we expect EUR 54m, or a 12.1% yoy decline, which should derive from a
lower customer base (eNuW: 2m; -9% yoy) combined with a lower average order
value (-9% yoy) and negligible FX effects.
Sales to decrease as Marketplace gains share. As GFGŽs goal to increase
Marketplace share of NMV should continue in Q3, Retail share of NMV should
decrease by 1pp yoy to 61%, while this should be directly reflected in a 1pp
yoy Marketplace share gain, to 39%. Given that a Marketplace share gain of
NMV usually drives the sales to NMV ratio down (since only 22% of
marketplace NMV is converted to sales: i.e., the take rate), we forecast a
sales to NMV ratio of 65% (-3pp yoy). As a result, group sales should arrive
at EUR 164m (-5.7% yoy). Regionally, we see LATAM sales decreasing by only 2%
yoy to EUR 44m, which already reflects an improvement versus H1 (-3% yoy). In
ANZ, sales should decrease by 2% yoy to EUR 85m, while in SEA we estimate
sales to decrease by 10.3% yoy to land at EUR 36m, broadly in line with
regional NMV developments and marketplace share gains.
Higher gross margin built to last. GFG has continuously improved its gross
margin over the past six quarters, being able to raise it sequentially from
44% in Q1Ž24 to 47.7% in Q2Ž25. This was achieved through a combination of
actions at both retail and marketplace business levels. On one hand, for its
retail business, the company has offered less discounts (due to its active
reduction of old inventory), while it has successfully negotiated better
terms with brands. On the other hand, given that marketplace carries a gross
margin close to 100% (given no COGS are incurred), a higher marketplace
share of NMV translates to an overall higher gross margin. Overall, for Q3
we estimate a continuation of this trend, thus we should see gross margin
improving by 2.7pp yoy to reach 46.5%. In fact, gross margin should improve
across all regions yoy (LATAM: +0.8pp yoy; ANZ: +2.2pp; SEA: +1.8pp), due to
a higher marketplace share of NMV in each region.
Overall, we maintain our strong conviction on the investment case due to the
already visible improvement in gross and adj. EBITDA margins, coupled with
positive FCFs in the broader future (eNuW: FYŽ27e). Given that GFG is priced
for insolvency, as it trades at a negative EV, the re-rating potential
appears attractive, in our view. Therefore, we reiterate our BUY rating and
keep our PT unchanged at EUR 0.80 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=025c934eb4f01545f68784e817112365
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2220184 29.10.2025 CET/CEST
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