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Original-Research: Global Fashion Group S.A. - from NuWays AG
12.11.2025 / 09:00 CET/CEST
Dissemination of a Research, transmitted by EQS News - a service of EQS
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Classification of NuWays AG to Global Fashion Group S.A.
Company Name: Global Fashion Group S.A.
ISIN: LU2010095458
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: Buy
from: 12.11.2025
Target price: EUR 0.90
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
Last Friday, GFG posted its Q3 results, with muted NMV and sales, but
positive adj. EBITDA. In detail:
FX disappointment in LATAM and ANZ, SEA in line. As expected, GFG's LTM
active customers decreased by 7.2% yoy to 7.4m, largely reflecting the
divestment of the Chile business (~0.4m customers). Excluding this effect,
underlying trends point to fruitful efforts in reversing customer decline in
LATAM and ANZ. Consequently, orders declined by 2% yoy (eNuW: -4%).
Nevertheless, the improvement was partially offset by a lower AOV, which
decreased by 5% yoy to EUR 61, due to FX effects (+1% yoy in cc). As a result,
group NMV decreased by 10% to EUR 239m (flat yoy in cc). Regionally, LATAM
decreased by 11% yoy (eNuW: +1% yoy) to EUR 69m NMV, driven by lower active
customers (3.5m; -10% yoy), but held back by FX headwinds (+3.8% yoy in cc).
ANZ mirrored the trend by decreasing 3.5% yoy (eNuW: 2% yoy) to reach EUR 120m
NMV mainly due to FX headwinds, yet cushioned by a higher customer base (2m;
+4.7% yoy). The decline was more pronounced in the SEA region, where NMV
decreased 20% yoy to EUR 49m, explained by a declined customer base (1.9m;
-13.3% yoy) and negative FX effects in a similar magnitude as in LATAM.
Sales decrease as Marketplace reaches new high. The retail business's share
of group NMV decreased by 1pp yoy to 61%, which directly increased
Marketplace share by 1pp, to 39%. As the Marketplace business works on a
take-rate basis, the sales to NMV ratio decreased accordingly by 1.8pp to
67.8%, reflecting the sales impact of this on the overall mix. As a result,
group sales arrived at EUR 157m (-10% yoy vs. -2% yoy in cc; eNuW: EUR 164m).
Regionally, LATAM decreased by 11% yoy to EUR 43m. In ANZ, sales fell 6% yoy
to EUR 82m mainly due to FX headwinds, while SEA sales decreased by 15% to
land at EUR 34m, broadly in line with regional NMV developments and
marketplace share gains.
Gross margin drivers intact. In Q3, GFG was able to increase its gross
margin by 1.5pp yoy to reach 46.1% with a combination of less provided
discounts (due to an improved inventory age), better terms negotiated with
brands, as well as the Marketplace share gain. Regionally, gross margin
improved across all regions yoy (LATAM: +1.1pp; ANZ: +1.5pp; SEA: +2.1pp),
due to a higher marketplace share gain in each region.
Positive adj. EBITDA surprise, FY'25 guidance at upper end. Fueled by gross
margin gains and a combination of cost control measures (i.e. fulfillment
efficiencies, a reduced headcount by 10% yoy, and improvements in G&A
contracts), GFG posted a positive adj. EBITDA (0.6% margin; +4.4pp yoy) of EUR
1m for a second time this year (LTM: EUR 2.4m), which proves that GFG is on
the right path to adj. EBITDA breakeven for FY'25. Consequently, management
narrowed its FYŽ25 guidance from adj. EBITDA breakeven to positive
single-digit million.
Against this backdrop, we maintain our strong conviction on the investment
case due to the already visible improvements in gross and adj. EBITDA
margins, coupled with positive FCFs in the broader future (eNuW: FYŽ27e).
Given that GFG is priced for insolvency, as it trades at a negative EV, the
re-rating potential appears attractive, in our view. Therefore, we reiterate
our BUY rating and increase our PT to EUR 0.90 based on DCF.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=bd0367cb4add434edd8474944afec68e
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2228142 12.11.2025 CET/CEST
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