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Original-Research: Global Fashion Group S.A. - from NuWays AG
03.02.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to Global Fashion Group S.A.
Company Name: Global Fashion Group S.A.
ISIN: LU2010095458
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 0.9
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Christian Sandherr
Operational turnaround around the corner; chg.
Return to growth at key regions. ANZ and LATAM (79% of group NMV) were
already showing a return to active customer growth; Q3 +4.7% and +1%
respectively. Here, new and reactivated customers outpace churned customers.
In our view, this should continue during FY26/27e ultimately allowing for
NMV growth despite a still challenging SEA region (likely continued
declining active customer numbers). Group NMV looks set to grow by some 4%
in FY26e.
SEA operations improving, yet still lagging behind ANZ and LATAM, partially
due to different market dynamics (e.g. stagnating online shopping
penetration and still low disposable income, EUR 200 vs EUR 400 in LATAM and EUR
1300 in AZN) for which the operational set-up was not ideal (significant
overcapacities in anticipation of strong NMV growth). With most of the
homework being done, in our view, SEA should be able to return to growth
within the next one to two years.
FX headwinds to fade. GFG's most important currency pairs (AUD/EUR and
BRL/EUR) have been moving against the company since Q3 2022, weighing on
growth. For instance, in Q3 2025, group NMV decreased by 6.6% yoy but was
nearly flat (-0.4% yoy) on constant currency. For FY26, currency headwinds
should be significantly less pronounced taking into account exchange rate
developments during the past few months.
Continued adj. EBITDA improvements. FY25e is seen to be the first year in
which GFG should have reached positive adj. EBITDA (eNuW: EUR 5.6m) due to
improving gross margins thanks to an increasing market place share (39% at
the end of Q3), continuous right-sizing efforts, adjustments of product
assortments and improving utilization rates at its remaining
warehouses/processing facilities (partially through third parties such as
H&M using GFG's facilities in SEA). This trend should continue, with results
becoming increasingly more visible as top-line returns to growth in
FY26/27e. By FY27e, the adj. EBITDA margin is seen to reach 3% (+9.9pp vs
FY23), eNuW.
Convertible bond nearly fully redeemed. At the beginning of the year, GFG
announced the plan to redeem additional EUR 31.8m of its convertible bond (due
2028) using parts of the still large net cash position (eNuW: EUR 98m at EOY
2025) in mid-March. With this, the company has repurchased EUR 366m (issue
size EUR 375m) notably below the issue price (average of 81%, eNuW).
In sum, GFG's management made significant progress transforming the group
during the past two years; sub-scale countries were exited, costs notably
reduced and go-to-market strategies fine-tuned. During the foreseeable
future, GFG should be able to reach positive cash flows. In light of the
negative EV (implicitly pricing an insolvency going forward), this should
also serve as a significant share price catalyst, in our view. Additional
progress in the still challenging SEA region could support an earlier
re-rating. We confirm our BUY rating with an unchanged EUR 0.90 PT based on
DCF.
-change of analyst-
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=e4fab7806322fd6225b132c9aa22716f
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2270122 03.02.2026 CET/CEST
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