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Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG
13.03.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE
Company Name: MLP SE
ISIN: DE0006569908
Reason for the research: Update
Recommendation: BUY
Target price: EUR 12
Target price on sight of: 12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst: Simon Keller
Core momentum points to guidance upside
MLP's Q4 results mark the end of a transition year. FY25 was shaped by weak
performance fees and the real estate clean-up. The core business
nevertheless continued to expand. As a result, 2026 starts from a cleaner
base with the underlying growth profile becoming more visible again.
Q4 group revenues increased 1% yoy to EUR 306m (eNuW: EUR 311m, also see p.2).
Property & casualty remained the key growth driver, with revenues rising 11%
yoy to EUR 46m, reflecting continued premium growth. While wealth revenues
declined 1% yoy to EUR 138m, as expected, wealth sales excluding performance
fees increased 5.8% yoy, confirming the positive trend.
Q4 adj. group EBIT rose 26% yoy to EUR 36m (eNuW: EUR 34m), thanks to lower
other operating expenses and reduced loan-loss provisions (together -8%
yoy). The adjustment reflects a EUR -9.2m goodwill impairment following MLP's
decision to abandon new real estate development projects earlier in 2025.
In 2026, we expect a 16% yoy adj. EBIT growth to EUR 112.5m, positioning
ourselves above the guidance corridor (EUR 100-110m). Revenues are expected to
grow 6.6% to EUR 1,116m. Our estimates assume broadly stable performance fees
of c. EUR 11m, reflecting limited visibility at this stage (eNuW). A broadly
stable cost base, already visible in 2025, should support further operating
leverage. We forecast a 0.8pp yoy improvement in the adj. EBIT margin
(eNuW).
Importantly, the Iran conflict has not translated into any visible change in
client behaviour so far. Advisory activity and inflows remained stable
despite the recent geopolitical tensions. This supports the view that client
decisions are driven by long-term financial planning.
The Q4 adj. EBIT growth rate of 26% also supports confidence in MLP's
mid-term outlook. A 14% adj. EBIT CAGR into 2028 looks well achievable
(eNuW), even without improving performance fees. This growth should be
supported by capital efficiency gains, with the dividend payout remaining at
c. 50-70% (current yield c. 5%).
In sum, MLP enters 2026 from a much cleaner base, with the drag from real
estate now ringfenced and earnings quality becoming more transparent. The
investment case increasingly centres on a resilient and structurally growing
core franchise, led by recurring revenues (72% of total), improving capital
efficiency and a controlled cost base. Against this backdrop, the current
valuation still does not fully reflect the visibility of mid-term earnings
growth, in our view. With adj. EBIT seen to compound at 14% into 2028, even
without a recovery in performance fees, and with a dividend yield of c. 5%,
the risk-reward remains attractive. Near-term news flow should also be
supportive, as the 2026 guidance appears conservative in our view.
BUY, PT EUR 12, based on Residual Income.
You can download the research here:
https://eqs-cockpit.com/c/fncls.ssp?u=3395ae7ef1092f1c517b3f987d724b6f
For additional information visit our website:
https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed
Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2290868 13.03.2026 CET/CEST
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