MLP SE (von NuWays AG): BUY 05.10.2026, 09:00 Uhr von dpa-AFX Jetzt kommentieren: 0

Original-Research: MLP SE - from NuWays AG



05.10.2026 / 09:00 CET/CEST
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Classification of NuWays AG to MLP SE



     Company Name:                MLP SE
     ISIN:                        DE0006569908



     Reason for the research:     Update
     Recommendation:              BUY
     Target price:                EUR 14
     Target price on sight of:    12 months
     Last rating change:
     Analyst:                     Simon Keller



Guidance catches up, we stay ahead; chg.



MLP raised its FY26 EBIT guidance to EUR 110-120m (old eCons: EUR 112m) from EUR
100-110m last Friday, increasing the mid-point by c. 10%. The revised range
still leaves room for a beat (eNuW). We raise FY26e EBIT to EUR 123m
(previously: EUR 116m), c. 7% above the revised mid-point. Beyond the current
earnings momentum, Germany's pension reform opens a further growth
opportunity from 2027.



Q3 performance fees make the guidance hike look conservative. Strong
investment performance at FERI lifted performance-based compensation to c. EUR
21m in Q3, up from EUR 2.8m a year earlier. The quarterly total was almost
twice the EUR 10.7m generated throughout FY25. Management's previous guidance
assumed no further performance fees in H2. Assuming an incremental EBIT
margin of c. 66% on performance fees (eNuW), Q3 fees alone imply an EBIT
contribution of c. EUR 14m, exceeding the EUR 10m increase at the guidance
mid-point. The revised guidance likely assumes no further performance fees
in Q4. With the funds appearing close to their high-water marks, further
gains could trigger additional fees before year-end, supporting upside
potential.



Higher rates add earnings momentum into FY27. The ECB's September hike took
the deposit rate to 2.5%, following June's increase to 2.25%. MLP holds c. EUR
3.2bn of interest-earning banking receivables, including EUR 918m of overnight
Bundesbank deposits that immediately benefit from the higher rate. On
unchanged volumes, each 0.25pp increase in the average yield across the
entire book adds c. EUR 8m of annual gross interest income before slightly
higher funding costs (eNuW).



Pension reform opens a new recurring revenue opportunity. From January 2027,
the Altersvorsorgedepot will allow state-subsidised investment in funds and
ETFs without a mandatory capital guarantee. In our view, voluntary transfers
of existing Riester savings are the key earnings driver for MLP. We expect
the new depot to generate recurring fees on accumulated assets, broadening
MLP's revenue opportunity beyond Riester's contribution-linked remuneration.
As these assets transfer into the new system, a preliminary estimate points
to c. EUR 6-7m of incremental EBIT p.a. by 2028 (eNuW; net), supporting higher
FY27-28 forecasts.



The advisory opportunity extends beyond retirement saving. Choosing a
suitable product, deciding whether to transfer existing savings and
determining an appropriate investment strategy should stimulate discussions
with both existing and new clients. These conversations give MLP's advisers
an opportunity to review clients' wider financial needs, supporting
additional business in wealth management, insurance and financing, in our
view.



Action: EPS estimates raised by c. 5% on average for FY26-28, reflecting
higher performance fees and interest income, plus Germany's pension reform.



Detailed Q3 results on 12 November should provide further evidence on
underlying growth and the interest result. Stronger near-term earnings and
an additional pension growth opportunity support our BUY, new PT EUR 14 (old:
EUR 12), based on a higher ROE in our Residual Income model.



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Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss
bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben
analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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2409934 05.10.2026 CET/CEST